Analyst Note| Philip Gorham, CFA, FRM |
Heineken may be a little behind our full-year forecasts after revealing third-quarter volume figures. We have pushed back some of the volume rebound by about six months into 2021, a move we think is prudent given the volatility in some of Heineken's core European markets, where lockdown measures may be reintroduced. Nevertheless, this has a negligible impact on our EUR 82 fair value estimate. We continue to like Heineken's business model and geographic footprint, although the shares are only marginally below our fair value estimate at the moment. Anheuser-Busch InBev offers more upside to our valuation. It reports third-quarter results on Oct. 29, and the read-through from Heineken's report appears to be quite positive, with strong growth in Brazil.