Analyst Note| Philip Gorham, CFA, FRM |
Heineken is tracking slightly behind our expectations for mid-single-digit volume growth in the first half of 2021, but we are retaining our EUR 82 fair value estimate because we expect volume growth to accelerate throughout the year as on-trade reopens. Europe, for example, has been fairly slow to open back up after the lockdown, but bars and restaurants that remained closed in the first quarter are likely to open in coming months. First-quarter beer volumes of 50.3 million hectoliters imply flat volumes on an organic basis. Organic growth in volumes of the Heineken brand grew by 12.1% in the first quarter, however, which confirms our thesis that Heineken's namesake brand is well-positioned to gain share as consumers in developing markets premiumise into premium-and-above beer categories. For this reason, we retain our narrow economic moat and positive trend ratings.