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Economic Moat




Negative Mix Weighs on Heineken in Q2; Stock Fairly Valued but ABI Offers Upside

Analyst Note

| Philip Gorham, CFA, FRM |

Heineken reported first-half results that were bang in line with our forecasts on volume, but a little light on price/mix and margins, resulting in a similar, if slightly weaker, first half performance as AB InBev. We have tweaked out volume assumptions for the latter half of the year to reflect the likelihood of a prolonged period of on-trade disruption, but we retain our narrow moat rating and EUR 82 fair value estimate. We continue to like Heineken's business model and think it is a well-managed business, but the shares are currently fairly valued.

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Company Profile

Business Description

Heineken is Western Europe's largest beer producer, and following the Anheuser-Busch InBev acquisition of SABMiller, it is the world's second- largest brewer. It has the leading position in many European markets, including the Netherlands, Austria, Greece, and Italy. Its flagship brand, Heineken, is the world's leading international premium lager. Its brand portfolio spans nonalcoholic, Belgian, and craft beer. Heineken is the world's biggest cider producer.

Tweede Weteringplantsoen 21, P.O Box 28
Amsterdam, 1000 AA, Netherlands
T +31 205239239
Sector Consumer Defensive
Industry Beverages - Brewers
Most Recent Earnings
Fiscal Year End Dec 31, 2020
Stock Type
Employees 85,000