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Heineken's Third-Quarter Volumes Indicate Slightly Longer Recovery; Shares Fairly Valued

Analyst Note

| Philip Gorham, CFA, FRM |

Heineken may be a little behind our full-year forecasts after revealing third-quarter volume figures. We have pushed back some of the volume rebound by about six months into 2021, a move we think is prudent given the volatility in some of Heineken's core European markets, where lockdown measures may be reintroduced. Nevertheless, this has a negligible impact on our EUR 82 fair value estimate. We continue to like Heineken's business model and geographic footprint, although the shares are only marginally below our fair value estimate at the moment. Anheuser-Busch InBev offers more upside to our valuation. It reports third-quarter results on Oct. 29, and the read-through from Heineken's report appears to be quite positive, with strong growth in Brazil. 

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Company Profile

Business Description

Heineken is Western Europe's largest beer producer, and following the Anheuser-Busch InBev acquisition of SABMiller, it is the world's second- largest brewer. It has the leading position in many European markets, including the Netherlands, Austria, Greece, and Italy. Its flagship brand, Heineken, is the world's leading international premium lager. Its brand portfolio spans nonalcoholic, Belgian, and craft beer. Heineken is the world's biggest cider producer.

Tweede Weteringplantsoen 21, P.O Box 28
Amsterdam, 1000 AA, Netherlands
T +31 205239239
Sector Consumer Defensive
Industry Beverages - Brewers
Most Recent Earnings
Fiscal Year End Dec 31, 2020
Stock Type
Employees 85,000