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Heineken NV ADR HEINY

Morningstar Rating
$47.68 +0.17 (0.36%)
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Company Report

Heineken Earnings: Wide Guidance Range Reflects Uncertainty Around Consumer Spending

Heineken reported a reasonable final quarter of 2023, with revenue and operating profit above our forecasts, although volume was weaker even than our recently lowered forecasts. Guidance for next year appears to be cautious, and we believe this is the reason for the market's negative reaction to the report. After the pullback, there is now 10% upside to our valuation, and we believe near-term risk is more than priced into the stock. We retain our EUR 96 fair value estimate and our narrow moat rating.

Price vs Fair Value

HEINY is trading at a 4% premium.
Price
$47.68
Fair Value
$19.00
Uncertainty
Medium
1-Star Price
$95.40
5-Star Price
$66.70
Economic Moat
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Capital Allocation
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Bulls Say, Bears Say

Bulls

The premium portfolio includes Heineken, the only truly global premium lager brand, Affligem, Lagunitas, and Birra Moretti. It is well positioned to capture market share through premiumisation.

Bears

Europe accounts for one third of Heineken’s EBIT, but pricing is weak in the highly competitive Western European market, while unfavorable demographics are putting pressure on volume in Eastern Europe.

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News

Trading Information

Previous Close Price
$47.51
Day Range
$47.5047.71
52-Week Range
$42.9258.23
Bid/Ask
$48.31 / $48.92
Market Cap
$53.73 Bil
Volume/Avg
83,553 / 95,076

Key Statistics

Price/Earnings (Normalized)
21.38
Price/Sales
1.61
Dividend Yield (Trailing)
2.21%
Dividend Yield (Forward)
2.21%
Total Yield
4.11%

Company Profile

Heineken sold 257 million hectolitres of beer in 2022, and is the world's second-largest brewer behind Anheuser-Busch InBev. It has the leading position in many European markets, including the Netherlands, Austria, Greece, and Italy. Its flagship brand, Heineken, is the world's leading international premium lager by volume and has spawned several brand extensions including Heineken 0.0 and Heineken Silver. Heineken is the world's biggest cider producer, and its portfolio also includes brands in the nonalcoholic, Belgian, and craft beer categories.
Sector
Consumer Defensive
Industry
Beverages - Brewers
Stock Style Box
Large Core
Total Number of Employees
90,000

Competitors

Valuation

Metric
HEINY
DGE
TAP
Price/Earnings (Normalized)
21.3815.1611.09
Price/Book Value
2.396.550.99
Price/Sales
1.613.471.14
Price/Cash Flow
10.6214.536.68
Price/Earnings
HEINY
DGE
TAP

Financial Strength

Metric
HEINY
DGE
TAP
Quick Ratio
0.510.570.43
Current Ratio
0.771.630.70
Interest Coverage
4.806.756.24
Quick Ratio
HEINY
DGE
TAP

Profitability

Metric
HEINY
DGE
TAP
Return on Assets (Normalized)
4.38%10.02%4.49%
Return on Equity (Normalized)
12.21%46.73%9.09%
Return on Invested Capital (Normalized)
7.24%15.82%6.81%
Return on Assets
HEINY
DGE
TAP
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Name
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Economic Moat
Market Cap
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BUDFF
Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NVPmtmfmz$125.5 Bil
BUD
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HINKF
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ABEV
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HKHHF
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CABGY
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SAM
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