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Carlsberg A/S ADR CABGY

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Stock PINX Rating as of
$24.42 −0.21 (0.84%)
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Carlsberg Earnings: Q3 in Line, but We Lower Valuation on Russia Exit

Philip Gorham

Carlsberg reported a broadly in-line third-quarter trading update, but we are lowering our fair value estimate to DKK 870 per share from DKK 970 due to the value destruction created by the loss of the company's Russian business. Carlsberg had been attempting to find a buyer for Baltika Breweries in order to comply with sanctions against Russia, but we now believe it will not receive any compensation for these assets, and we assign a zero value to them. The market appears to have anticipated this development, and we believe the stock is fairly valued.

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Price vs Fair Value

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CABGY is trading at a 2% discount.
Price
$24.42
Fair Value
$89.00
Uncertainty
Medium
1-Star Price
$11.46
5-Star Price
$22.70
Economic Moat
Vpg
Capital Allocation
Zrpgyskkw

Bulls Say, Bears Say

Bulls

Although Carlsberg is underindexed in premium segments, it does have a presence with brands such as Tuborg, 1664 Blanc and Brooklyn, and the premiumization of the portfolio could be seen as a long-term opportunity.

Bears

The shift to low and no-alcohol beer creates uncertainty around volume and the crossover of brand equity into these categories.

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Trading Information

Previous Close Price
$24.63
Day Range
$24.20–24.42
52-Week Range
$23.32–33.70
Bid/Ask
$24.35 / $24.42
Market Cap
$16.43 Bil
Volume/Avg
131,744 / 141,085

Key Statistics

Price/Earnings (Normalized)
15.72
Price/Sales
1.65
Dividend Yield
3.15%
Dividend Yield (Forward)
3.15%
Total Yield
6.32%

Company Profile

Carlsberg is the fourth-largest brewer in the world following the combination of Anheuser-Busch InBev and SABMiller, with major operations in Russia, Europe, and Asia. It holds leading share in Scandinavia, Switzerland, Portugal, Laos, Nepal, and parts of western China. Its key brands include Carlsberg, 1664, Tuborg, Holsten, and Somersby. The company's 2022 beverage volume, excluding Russia, was split among Northern and Western Europe (35%), Eastern Europe (26%), and Asia (39%).
Sector
Consumer Defensive
Industry
Beverages - Brewers
Stock Style Box
Large Core
Total Number of Employees
38,906
Website
https://www.carlsberggroup.com

Competitors

Valuation

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Metric
CABGY
ABI
600600
Price/Earnings (Normalized)
 15.7217.7623.79
Price/Book Value
 4.031.623.51
Price/Sales
 1.652.142.89
Price/Cash Flow
 10.518.7224.77
Price/Earnings
CABGY
ABI
600600

Financial Strength

Metric
CABGY
ABI
600600
Quick Ratio
 0.390.431.36
Current Ratio
 0.660.641.82
Interest Coverage
 14.243.13321.58
Quick Ratio
CABGY
ABI
600600

Profitability

Metric
CABGY
ABI
600600
Return on Assets (Normalized)
 6.15%—7.83%
Return on Equity (Normalized)
 23.96%—14.81%
Return on Invested Capital (Normalized)
 11.71%—13.11%
Return on Assets
CABGY
ABI
600600

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