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Carlsberg A/S CABGY

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Asia Bounces Back Strongly for Carlsberg in Q1; Pent-Up Demand Likely in Europe as Well

Analyst Note

| Philip Gorham, CFA, FRM |

Carlsberg beat our expectations in the first quarter of 2021 with a stunning volume rebound in Asia. We attribute the strong performance to pent-up demand, and we have raised our near-term revenue growth and margin estimates to reflect similar consumer behaviour in other markets. Consequently, we are raising our fair value estimate by 2% to DKK 810 from DKK 790. We still think the market is more than pricing in Carlsberg's rebound from COVID-19, and we feel the current market valuation does not reflect Carlsberg's weaker competitive positioning relative to some of its larger peers.

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Company Profile

Business Description

Carlsberg is the fourth-largest brewer in the world following the combination of Anheuser-Busch InBev and SABMiller, with major operations in Russia, Europe, and Asia. It holds leading share in Russia, Scandinavia, Laos, Cambodia, and parts of western China. Its key brands include Carlsberg, Tuborg, Baltika, Holsten, and Somersby. The company's 2020 beverage volume was split among Northern and Western Europe (44%), Eastern Europe (25%), and Asia (30%).

Contact
J.C. Jacobsens Gade 1
Copenhagen, 1799, Denmark
T +45 33273300
Sector Consumer Defensive
Industry Beverages - Brewers
Most Recent Earnings Dec 31, 2015
Fiscal Year End Dec 31, 2021
Stock Type —
Employees 40,010

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