Analyst Note| Philip Gorham, CFA, FRM |
Carlsberg beat our expectations in the first quarter of 2021 with a stunning volume rebound in Asia. We attribute the strong performance to pent-up demand, and we have raised our near-term revenue growth and margin estimates to reflect similar consumer behaviour in other markets. Consequently, we are raising our fair value estimate by 2% to DKK 810 from DKK 790. We still think the market is more than pricing in Carlsberg's rebound from COVID-19, and we feel the current market valuation does not reflect Carlsberg's weaker competitive positioning relative to some of its larger peers.