Standing Pat on Twitter’s Fair Value Estimate
We still think Twitter has no economic moat and would wait for a cheaper price before buying, but the market is likely overreacting to the lack of user growth.
Total second-quarter revenue came in at $574 million, down 5% year over year, due to lower ad pricing and continuing impact of Twitter no longer focusing on TellApart, the retargeting business. Total ad revenue of $489 million represented a 9% decline over the prior year, which included $30 million-$50 million in sales from TellApart by our estimates. The firm’s data licensing revenue went up 26% year over year to $85 million. Twitter is now more aggressively monetizing the user behavior data that it gathers on its main platform. Twitter’s gross margin declined about 300 basis points from last year to 63% as Twitter continues to invest in the costlier premium video content. The firm’s GAAP operating loss of $38 million was an improvement from last year’s $86 million loss, mainly due to some cost control and the benefits of the firm’s restructuring a year ago.
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