Maersk: Lowering Fair Value on Tariffs Uncertainty

Key Morningstar Metrics For Maersk

• Fair Value Estimate: DKK 11,100
• Morningstar Rating: ★★★★
• Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: None
• Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: High

President Donald Trump shifted his tariff policy on April 9, levying a 145% tariff on China and a flat 10% tariff on all other countries for the next 90 days. Maersk AMKBY shares have fallen 22% this year. Shares have been highly volatile, moving rapidly as policy changes shift expectations.

Why it matters: Chinese-US trade accounts for 2%-3% of global trade volumes and would feel the greatest impact from the current policies. However, policy shifts, like those levying tariffs on a greater number of countries, expand Maersk’s exposure and increase the probability of volume and price retractions.

The bottom line: In line with Hapag-Lloyd HLAG, we are lowering our fair value estimate for no-moat Maersk to DKK 11,100, down 20% from the beginning of the year. We view the China-focused and short recession scenarios as the more likely outcomes, but also factor in the potential for severe tariffs.

In this scenario, we anticipate a 1.5%-2.5% reduction in global gross domestic product forecasts. We model trade volumes to fall the same amount, as trade volumes have matched GDP growth over the past decade.

Decreased demand puts downward pressure on freight rates, further depressing global shipping revenue, a key reason fair values fall further than their volume reductions

Bulls say: If the current policy is enacted through 2026, we anticipate a 1%-2% drop in volumes, resulting in a 12% decrease in our start-of-year fair value estimate to DKK 12,000.

Bears say: We analyzed Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd during recent recessions, short-term (three months to a year) and long-term (over 18 months).

If a short recession occurs, we anticipate a 2%-3% reduction in volumes, resulting in a 25% decrease in our start-of-year fair value estimate to DKK 10,500.

If a long-term recession occurs, we anticipate volume retraction and a severe impact on freight rates, resulting in a 40% decrease in our start-of-year fair value estimate to DKK 8,000.