Skip to Content
Morningstar

GM: UAW Strike Probably Means Third-Quarter Sales Strength Won’t Be Repeated in Fourth Quarter

General Motors logo superimposed atop the world headquarters building.

Most automakers reported third-quarter or September U.S. auto sales on Oct. 3 with Wards putting the month’s deliveries to end customers up 18.5% from September 2022, or 13.9% after factoring in one more selling day this September. Third-quarter deliveries grew by 16.8%. The month’s seasonally adjusted annualized selling rate was 15.67 million up from 13.70 million a year ago. J.D. Power estimated September incentives per unit at $1,806 which is 81% higher year over year but off a very low base as poor supply from the chip shortage made discounting a low priority. Incentives as a percentage of average manufacturer’s suggested retail price are only 3.7%—quite low in absolute level terms, even though it’s up 160 basis points year over year. Demand remains robust as consumers realize pent-up demand from the start of the pandemic. The UAW strike will not help fourth-quarter numbers and the Detroit Three entered September with about 40% less dealer inventory than just before the 40-day GM strike four years ago. However, the strike is hitting certain vehicles rather than all plants at once and as of Oct. 3 has not affected full-size pickups or full-size SUV production.

GM’s GM third-quarter deliveries outperformed the industry rising 21.4% with all four brands up, led by Buick’s 54.2% growth thanks to Encore GX crossover volume more than doubling and the new Envista crossover. Chevrolet rose 21.2% and is having its best year since 2019 while GMC, up 18.5%, is having its best year since 2005. We calculate GM’s full-size pickups grew 29.5% with Silverado up over 20% and Sierra up 46%. Higher volumes mean less heavy-duty mix, which was down 620 basis points to 38.8% of full-size pickups, but more volume should help scale costs. Cadillac’s momentum continued with CT5 and Escalade growth offsetting crossover declines to give the brand its best third quarter since 2019. On the all-electric front, the Chevrolet Blazer just began deliveries as did the Silverado to fleet customers.

The author or authors do not own shares in any securities mentioned in this article. Find out about Morningstar’s editorial policies.

More in Stocks

About the Author

David Whiston

Strategist
More from Author

David Whiston, CFA, CPA, CFE, is a strategist for Morningstar Research Services LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Morningstar, Inc. He covers the automotive industry, including dealerships, parts manufacturers, and automakers. He has covered the automotive industry since joining Morningstar in 2007.

Before Morningstar, Whiston spent four years in PricewaterhouseCoopers’ New York real estate audit practice and one year in its Chicago office working on real estate acquisition due diligence.

Whiston holds a bachelor’s degree in business administration with a concentration in accounting from the University of Richmond. He also holds a master’s degree in business administration with concentrations in finance, economics, and organizational behavior from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. He holds the Chartered Financial Analyst® designation, and he is a Certified Public Accountant and a Certified Fraud Examiner. In 2012, he ranked first in the specialty retailers and services industry in The Wall Street Journal’s annual “Best on the Street” analysts survey. He ranked first in the same industry in 2011.

Sponsor Center