Morningstar

GM: Fourth-Quarter Sales Down, but Full Year Excellent

GM reports earnings on Jan. 27 and should give 2026 guidance at that time.

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General Motors’ GM fourth-quarter US sales fell 6.9% year over year, while full-year sales grew 5.5%. The firm’s electric vehicle sales fell 43% in the quarter but rose 48% for the year. Wards put 2025 US industry sales at 16.2 million, up 2.4% from 2024.

Why it matters: GM’s numbers were not all down, as key vehicles, such as full-size pickups, increased 4.1% in the quarter, by our calculation. Silverado had its best fourth quarter since 2020, and Sierra had an all-time record quarter.

  • Certain full-size SUVs, another key profit center, did well, with the Escalade up 5% and the Suburban up 16.2%. Escalade had its best quarter since 2006, and the Escalade IQ EV more than tripled, thanks to an easy comparable a year ago when it was just launching.
  • We’re not surprised to see EV sales down, given the tax credit expiration. We see GM well set up to capture remaining EV demand in 2026 with four Cadillac offerings, Chevy crossovers, and the Chevrolet Bolt launching this month starting just under $30,000.

The bottom line: We are not changing our no-moat rating or fair value estimate. GM’s 2025 incentives as a percentage of average transaction price were 4.3%, versus 6.6% for the industry. This suggests continued healthy pricing in 2026, though we think probably not as good as in 2025.

  • GM’s low discounting means it has room to increase discounts in 2026 without destroying profitability. We don’t see pricing as robust in 2026 as in 2025, but data points such as Cadillac posting its best retail sales since 2007 and record GMC Denali sales suggest that consumers value GM vehicles.
  • GM reports earnings on Jan. 27 and should give 2026 guidance at that time. We expect 2026 US industry sales to be down from 2025 to 15.8 million-16.0 million, as we expect consumer affordability woes to worsen as automakers pass through more tariff impact than in 2025.

Editor’s Note: This analysis was originally published as a stock note by Morningstar Equity Research.

The author or authors do not own shares in any securities mentioned in this article. Find out about Morningstar’s editorial policies.

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