DoorDash Earnings: Big Spending Plan for Tech Initiatives Pressures Stock

Key Morningstar Metrics for DoorDash

• Fair Value Estimate: $205.00
• Morningstar Rating: ★★★
• Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: Narrow
• Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: Very High

What We Thought of DoorDash’s Earnings

DoorDash DASH shares traded lower after the company reported mixed third-quarter results. It beat the midpoint of management’s forecast for total gross order value on the marketplace and adjusted EBITDA but foreshadowed increased spending on technology.

Why it matters: DoorDash hasn’t been shy about organic and inorganic investments, but its plans to invest “several hundred million dollars more” in 2026 than in 2025 may have caught some investors by surprise. We have confidence that this spending will benefit DoorDash, given management’s record.

• DoorDash’s acquisition of European delivery platform Wolt likely serves as an integration blueprint for the recent acquisition of Deliveroo. DoorDash has grown Wolt by about 200% since 2022. Deliveroo now gives DoorDash a wide presence over continental Europe, the most attractive market after the United States.
• Core metrics like monthly active users and engagement (orders per monthly active user), used to quantify network effects, continue to impress. Monthly active users grew the fastest in seven quarters, and we estimate quarterly order frequency was 17.3. This is impressive versus Uber’s 18.6, given DoorDash’s focus on delivery.

The bottom line: We maintain our narrow moat rating and $205 fair value estimate for DoorDash, as we have largely already factored in increased spending for Deliveroo integration and investments in autonomy initiatives.

• The shares appear fairly valued. We appreciate the potential operating leverage from courier-replacing autonomous delivery technologies, but we expect Uber to compete with similar autonomous initiatives. And these initiatives still require capital investment, even if they replace human costs.
• Real wage growth is decelerating due to increasing slack in the labor market. When paired with a saving rate well below normal levels, weak consumer spending on food delivery becomes a tangible threat.