Kogan.com Ltd KGN

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A$4.98 −0.10 (1.97%)

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As of May 1, 2024 6:10am Delayed Price Post-Trading: —

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Company Report

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Kogan: Next Leg of Earnings Growth Depends on Sales Momentum Picking Up

Johannes Faul Apr 24, 2024

No-moat Kogan is grappling with muted consumer demand. Gross sales growth in the March quarter of 2024 missed our expectations. Operating margins, or adjusted EBITDA per gross sales, strengthened on the December 2023 quarter and on the previous corresponding period. However, without the expected return to top-line growth, operating costs weighed on margins. We materially downgrade our earnings outlook for fiscal 2024 and 2025 by 19% and 15%, respectively.

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Price vs Fair Value

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KGN is trading at a 53% discount.

Price

A$5.08

Apr 30, 2024

Fair Value

A$46.20

Oct 27, 2022

Uncertainty

Very High

1-Star Price: A$73.72
5-Star Price: A$2.86
Economic Moat: Gxyr
Capital Allocation: Jddzjtwlf

Bulls Say, Bears Say

Bulls

Kogan is well placed as a pure-play online retailer due to structural tailwinds from online migration.

Bears

Current unprecedented growth is vulnerable to potential higher unemployment and physical retail reopening in the near term, and growing competition from Amazon and omnichannel retailers in the long term.

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Trading Information

Previous Close Price: A$5.08
Day Range: A$4.96–5.08
52-Week Range: A$4.11–8.73
Bid/Ask: A$4.98 / A$5.00
Market Cap: A$501.42 Mil
Volume/Avg: 753,898 / 757,655

Key Statistics

Price/Earnings (Normalized): 25.95
Price/Sales: 1.17
Dividend Yield (Trailing): 1.48%
Dividend Yield (Forward): 2.95%
Total Yield: 3.59%

Company Profile

Kogan.com is an Australian pure-play online retailer. The firm primarily caters to value-driven consumers through its private label products, spanning multiple categories including consumer electronics, furniture, and fitness. For brand-conscious consumers, Kogan also offers a wide range of products from well-known third-party brands such as Apple, Samsung, and Google. Additionally, Kogan competes in the online marketplace industry, providing a platform and customer base for approved sellers in exchange for a commission. Finally, the firm sells multiple white-labeled products and services including prepaid mobile phone plans, insurance, and travel packages.

Sector: Consumer Cyclical
Industry: Internet Retail
Stock Style Box: Small Core
Total Number of Employees: —
Website: https://www.kogancorporate.com

Competitors

Valuation

Metric	KGN	BBY	HVN
Price/Earnings (Normalized)	25.95	11.54	13.14
Price/Book Value	3.20	5.20	1.28
Price/Sales	1.17	0.37	1.47
Price/Cash Flow	8.89	7.14	6.85

Price/Earnings

KGN

BBY

HVN

Financial Strength

Metric	KGN	BBY	HVN
Quick Ratio	0.75	0.30	1.39
Current Ratio	1.34	1.00	2.18
Interest Coverage	4.95	32.17	5.85

Quick Ratio

KGN

BBY

HVN

Profitability

Metric	KGN	BBY	HVN
Return on Assets (Normalized)	4.02%	9.35%	4.91%
Return on Equity (Normalized)	7.37%	50.84%	8.60%
Return on Invested Capital (Normalized)	6.32%	21.80%	6.60%

Return on Assets

KGN

BBY

HVN

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