Company Reports

We intend to cease coverage of Kogan on or around Aug. 6, 2026.

We intend to drop coverage of Kogan on or around Aug. 6, 2026. We provide analyst research and ratings on over 1,600 companies globally and more than 200 companies in Australia and New Zealand, and periodically adjust our coverage according to investor interest and staffing.

Kogan's gross sales are up 13% year on year over the 10 months to April 2026. Solid sales momentum in Australia is more than offsetting declining sales in New Zealand. Profit margins are expanding, helped by moderating losses in New Zealand. Shares jumped 17%.

Kogan’s business strategy is broadly based on low-price leadership. However, as the competitive outlook intensifies from both Amazon and omnichannel retailers, Kogan is adjusting by launching a new online marketplace and building businesses like Kogan Mobile and Kogan Energy. Compared with new entrants and most traditional retailers, while replicable we believe Kogan is far ahead on its supply chain, operational automation, IT, and sourcing capabilities. It outsources delivery and uses third-party logistics providers for warehousing, but has built a proprietary least-cost routing system that automatically calculates the best carrier depending on the article ordered.

Kogan's first-half fiscal 2026 underlying NPAT declined 1% to AUD 12 million. The smaller New Zealand business dragged heavily on group profits. The Australian Kogan.com platform increased EBITDA by 18% on 17% higher revenue. The interim dividend is up 14% to AUD 0.08. Shares were up 6%.

E-commerce is structurally growing much faster than in-store sales, providing a significant tailwind to online retailers like Kogan. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, online sales increased by 13% in the 12 months to September 2025, well ahead of industry growth of 4%.

Kogan's gross sales increased 15% to AUD 931 million in fiscal 2025. But underlying operating profits fell 8% due to more marketing spending and troubles with the New Zealand Mighty Ape website. Australian underlying EBITDA was up 13%, while New Zealand operating profits disappeared.

Kogan’s business strategy is broadly based on low-price leadership. However, as the competitive outlook intensifies from both Amazon and omnichannel retailers, Kogan is adjusting by launching a new online marketplace and building businesses like Kogan Mobile and Kogan Energy. Compared with new entrants and most traditional retailers, while replicable we believe Kogan is far ahead on its supply chain, operational automation, IT, and sourcing capabilities. It outsources delivery and uses third-party logistics providers for warehousing, but has built a proprietary least-cost routing system that automatically calculates the best carrier depending on the article ordered.

Household incomes are growing in real terms after a period of rampant inflation. With inflation back within the Reserve Bank of Australia’s target range, the focus is shifting to keeping the job market in good shape. Monetary settings are slightly restrictive, providing room for more easing.

Kogan is rapidly increasing gross sales and taking market share in Australia's discretionary e-commerce market. However, this is being driven by ballooning marketing expenses, and so comes at the expense of diminishing near-term profit margins. Further weighing on margins are losses in New Zealand.

Kogan’s business strategy is broadly based on low-price leadership. However, as the competitive outlook intensifies from both Amazon and omnichannel retailers, Kogan is adjusting by launching a new online marketplace and building its product offerings in bulkier goods. Compared with new entrants and most traditional retailers, while replicable we believe Kogan is far ahead on its supply chain, operational automation, IT, and sourcing capabilities. It outsources delivery and uses third-party logistics providers for warehousing, but has built a proprietary least-cost routing system that automatically calculates the best carrier depending on the article ordered.

Tariffs are softening Australian consumer sentiment and investors are preferring defensives over cyclical retailers. Since sweeping US tariffs were announced April 2, our Morningstar Australia Consumer Defensive Index is up 3%, but the Morningstar Australia Consumer Cyclical Index is flat.

Kogan released unaudited first-half 2025 accounts in January, with gross sales up over 10% to AUD 493 million and adjusted EBITDA up 18% to AUD 25 million. What's new is the trading update, which highlights still-elevated marketing spending and ongoing weakness in New Zealand.

Kogan’s business strategy is broadly based on low-price leadership. However, as the competitive outlook intensifies from both Amazon and omnichannel retailers, Kogan is adjusting by launching a new online marketplace and building its product offerings in bulkier goods. Compared with new entrants and most traditional retailers, while replicable we believe Kogan is far ahead on its supply chain, operational automation, IT, and sourcing capabilities. It outsources delivery and uses third-party logistics providers for warehousing, but has built a proprietary least-cost routing system that automatically calculates the best carrier depending on the article ordered.

Following a subdued start to fiscal 2025, Kogan's sales growth boomed in the key Christmas trading period. Gross sales increased by 24% in November and December 2024, year on year. However, growth was fueled by a huge step up in marketing spending, and adjusted operating profits fell slightly.

Kogan’s business strategy is broadly based on low-price leadership. However, as the competitive outlook intensifies from both Amazon and omnichannel retailers, Kogan is adjusting by launching a new online marketplace and building its product offerings in bulkier goods. Compared with new entrants and most traditional retailers, while replicable we believe Kogan is far ahead on its supply chain, operational automation, IT, and sourcing capabilities. It outsources delivery and uses third-party logistics providers for warehousing, but has built a proprietary least-cost routing system that automatically calculates the best carrier depending on the article ordered.

Australian consumer sentiment is gradually improving. The pressure on household budgets is slowly easing with lower inflation and stabilizing real incomes. Shoppers are more optimistic about the economic outlook and believe further interest-rate hikes are off the table.

Trading momentum for nonessential goods is picking up. So far in fiscal 2025, sales growth is improving at Super Retail’s chains and Woolworths’ Big W discount department stores, as well as at electronics goods retailers JB Hi-Fi, Harvey Norman, and Kogan.

Kogan’s business strategy is broadly based on low-price leadership. However, as the competitive outlook intensifies from both Amazon and omnichannel retailers, Kogan is adjusting by launching a new online marketplace and building its product offerings in bulkier goods. Compared with new entrants and most traditional retailers, while replicable we believe Kogan is far ahead on its supply chain, operational automation, IT, and sourcing capabilities. It outsources delivery and uses third-party logistics providers for warehousing, but has built a proprietary least-cost routing system that automatically calculates the best carrier depending on the article ordered.

No-moat Kogan’s fiscal 2024 results were largely disclosed, including adjusted EBITDA of AUD 40 million, an almost 500% improvement on the previous corresponding period. However, the adjusted net profit after tax of AUD 21 million beat our estimate by about 20%, owing to lower underlying amortization expenses. The higher adjusted earnings underpin higher-than-expected fully franked dividends of AUD 0.15 per share, representing a payout of 75%.