Preston Caldwell

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Key Takeaways After the Best News on Core Inflation in a Long Time

Preston Caldwell Jul 17, 2026

What’s Ahead in 2027 and Beyond for Inflation, Fed Rate Cuts, and More

Preston Caldwell Jul 14, 2026

5 Myths About AI’s Economic Impact, and What the Data Actually Shows

Preston Caldwell Jul 8, 2026

The Labor Market Comeback May Not Be As Strong as It Looks

Preston Caldwell Jul 7, 2026

As Powell Closes Out Term as Fed Chair, Odds of Rate Cut in 2026 Vanish

Preston Caldwell Apr 29, 2026

More From Preston Caldwell

Q2 Market Outlook: Why a Stock Barbell Strategy Is Ideal for Today’s Market

We expect volatility to persist in 2026 and recommend balancing undervalued growth stocks with high-quality value stocks.

David Sekera, CFA Apr 15, 2026

Fed Rate Cuts in 2026? How an Oil Shock Is Complicating the Outlook

A sudden jump in oil prices is reshaping expectations for when the Fed can cut rates.

Preston Caldwell Mar 19, 2026

As Fed Holds Steady, Oil Spike Has 2026 Rate Cut Expectations Shrinking Fast

Both the bond market and Fed officials now signal just one move to lower rates this year.

Preston Caldwell Mar 18, 2026

Could Tariffs Go Still Higher Despite the Supreme Court Ruling?

The Trump administration has other ways to keep tariffs high—if the president has the patience for the bureaucracy involved.

Preston Caldwell Feb 20, 2026

The Fed May Be on Pause, but It May Not Be Done Cutting Rates

With the economy remaining strong despite jobs weakness, the Fed can take its time.

Preston Caldwell Jan 28, 2026

High Valuations, Higher Stakes: We’re Expecting Volatile Markets in 2026

Join Morningstar’s chief US market strategist and chief US economist for their 2026 market outlook as they review Morningstar’s current market valuation and why they expect the economy to reaccelerate in the second half of 2026.

David Sekera, CFA Jan 23, 2026

Inflation Set to Rise in 2026 as Tariff Costs Hit Consumers

Our outlook shows inflation ticking up to 2.7%, with GDP growth slowing.

Preston Caldwell Jan 14, 2026

Will Interest Rates Fall More in 2026? Our Latest Forecast

The Fed signals a pause is on the way.

Preston Caldwell Dec 11, 2025

Fed Lowers Rates, but Future Cuts Will Require More Evidence of Weakness

The ranks of the hawks are growing, even as the Fed focuses on downside risks.

Preston Caldwell Dec 10, 2025

Investors First: 2026 Market Outlook

As 2026 approaches, investors face rising protectionism, geopolitical fragmentation, and market instability. Morningstar CEO Kunal Kapoor is joined by Morningstar’s global market strategists to explore the trends shaping portfolios in the year ahead.

Kunal Kapoor, CFA Dec 5, 2025

Fed Cuts Rates; Uncertainty Ahead

Conflicting data muddies the picture for monetary policy.

Preston Caldwell Oct 29, 2025

The Markets Are Walking a Tightrope. How Can Investors Find Their Footing?

With stocks fully valued, global growth slowing, and the AI buildout boom, we discuss how investors can position their portfolios in today’s evolving landscape.

David Sekera, CFA Oct 14, 2025

How Will the Government Shutdown Affect the US Economy?

A look at how the shutdown could play out.

Preston Caldwell Oct 1, 2025

How Low Can Interest Rates Go? A Closer Look at the Fed’s Balancing Act in an Unusual Economy

Plus, the risks that could force the Fed to shift its focus from a softening job market back to sticky inflation.

Preston Caldwell Sep 18, 2025

Fed Cuts Rates and Signals More to Come in 2025

Risks to the labor market point to easier monetary policy ahead.

Preston Caldwell Sep 17, 2025

Cautious Consumers Pull Back as Tariff-Driven Inflation Risks Rise

Plus, why an interest rate cut in September is not a sure thing.

Preston Caldwell Jul 31, 2025

The Fed Tees Up a September Rate Cut, but Will it Happen?

Powell sounds hawkish on inflation, but we still see two rate cuts in 2025.

Preston Caldwell Jul 30, 2025

Where Should Investors Look Next Among Economic Mixed Messages?

With inflation cooling and interest rates in flux, investors are reevaluating risk.

Kunal Kapoor, CFA Jul 30, 2025

Morningstar’s Q3 2025 US Market Outlook: Has the Storm Passed, or Are We in the Eye of a Hurricane?

How we think investors should be positioned for either path.

David Sekera, CFA Jul 16, 2025

What Tariffs Could Mean for Fixed-Income Investors

A return to trade volatility could have a range of impacts under different economic scenarios.

Hong Cheng Jul 7, 2025

How Much Will the Fed Cut Interest Rates?

Fed to drive rates lower as top concern shifts from inflation to growth.

Preston Caldwell Jun 26, 2025

Fed on Inflation Watch, but Rate Cuts Still Ahead

We see the Fed cutting interest rates twice in 2025.

Preston Caldwell Jun 18, 2025

Why the Economy Isn’t Out of the Woods Yet on Tariffs After US Court Decision

Tariffs would still be significantly higher and Trump could continue to roll out levies on specific goods.

Preston Caldwell May 29, 2025

Fight Inflation or Protect Jobs? The Fed Has a Tough Choice to Make

Plus, supply chain shortages could make a comeback for the holiday shopping season.

Preston Caldwell May 8, 2025

Why the Fed May Wait Until July to Cut Interest Rates

Powell says the Fed needs ‘greater clarity’ on how tariffs will affect growth and inflation.

Preston Caldwell May 7, 2025

Preston Caldwell is senior US economist for Morningstar.* He leads the research team's views on US macroeconomic issues, including gross domestic product growth, inflation, interest rates, and monetary policy.

Previously, Caldwell served as a member of the energy sector team, covering oilfield-services stocks and helping to craft Morningstar's long-term oil price forecasts.

Caldwell holds a bachelor's degree in economics from the University of Arkansas and earned his Master of Business Administration from Rice University.

*Morningstar Research Services LLC (“Morningstar”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Morningstar, Inc.