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Philip Gorham, CFA, FRM

Philip Gorham, CFA, FRM, is a strategist, consumer equity research, for Morningstar.

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Consolidated net revenue fell by 2.6% year over year, driven by a steep 12.9% decline in smokeable segment volume. We had expected a sequential volume deterioration from the adjusted decline of 4.5% in the second quarter, due to trade inventory movements, but this was disappointing relative to our expectations of flat net revenue. However, price/mix of 10.3% and the 90 basis point year-over-year improvement in gross margin to 66.4% were both impressive, and suggest that the competitive environment became less promotional during the quarter.

We maintain our valuations and wide moat and negative trend ratings for the cigarette makers as reports have surfaced that the Biden administration is considering lowering the nicotine and menthol levels in cigarettes.

Altria reported another robust performance at the top line in the fourth quarter of 2020. Although we are not changing our $54 fair value estimate, this performance increases our conviction that Altria is undervalued.

Potential vaping regulations have limited impact on our valuations.

The wide-moat tobacco giant may take a stake in the U.S. vaping startup, but we have reservations about the timing of the deal and potential valuation.

Market reaction to AB InBev’s dividend cut makes the shares even more attractive.

More About Philip Gorham

Philip Gorham, CFA, FRM, is a strategist, consumer equity research, for Morningstar Asia Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of Morningstar, Inc. He relocated to Morningstar's Hong Kong office from Tokyo in November 2020. Gorham leads the equity analysts who cover Greater China equities and are based in Hong Kong, Shenzhen, and Singapore. Gorham continues to cover the European consumer staples sector, spanning beverages, consumer packaged goods, and tobacco products.

Gorham had extensive experience covering the consumer sector in Europe and the United States before moving to Asia in 2017. His most recent role was the director of equity research for Ibbotson Associates Japan, a Morningstar subsidiary

Gorham holds a bachelor's degree in economics from the University of Sunderland and master's degrees in business administration and accounting from the University of North Carolina. He also holds the Chartered Financial Analyst® and Financial Risk Manager® designations.

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