Morningstar

June PCE Report: Index Up 3.7% from Last Year, Softer Than Expected

The PCE Price Index decreased 0.11% in June from the previous month.

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Collage illustration of a basket filled with groceries, featuring a dollar icon and a magnifying glass.

The June Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index posted a softer-than-expected increase, up 3.7% from a year ago. Economists forecast that the index would rise 3.8%.

When volatile food and energy costs are excluded, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation increased 3.3% from one year ago, below expectations. Economists forecast that the core PCE index would rise 3.4%. Still, the index remains well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

The PCE Price Index decreased 0.11% from month-ago levels. Excluding food and energy, the index increased 0.13%.

June PCE Inflation Report Highlights

  • The PCE Price Index fell 0.11% in June, below the FactSet consensus forecast for a 0.04% increase and following a 0.46% increase in May.
  • Core PCE rose 0.13% in June, below forecasts for a 0.23% increase and following a 0.33% increase in May.
  • The PCE Price Index rose 3.7% year over year in June, below forecasts for a 3.8% increase and following a 4.1% increase in May.
  • Core PCE rose 3.3% year over year in June, below forecasts for a 3.4% increase and following a 3.4% increase in May.

This article was generated with the help of automation and reviewed by Morningstar editors. Learn more about Morningstar’s use of automation.

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