July US CPI Report Shows Inflation at a 2.7% Annual Rate, Slightly Below Expected

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index increased 2.7% in July from year-ago levels, the same as in June. Year-over-year core CPI (which excludes volatile food and energy costs) rose 3.1%, surpassing the June rate of 2.9%.

The CPI rose 0.2% month over month in July after rising 0.3% in June. Core CPI also rose 0.3%, matching the June increase.

Economists had forecast the CPI to rise 0.2% on a monthly basis in July, taking the annual inflation rate to 2.8%, according to FactSet’s consensus estimates. Economists predicted that core inflation would rise 0.3% on a monthly basis and 3.0% on an annual basis.

July CPI Report Key Stats

• CPI rose 0.2% for the month after rising 0.3% in June.
• Core CPI also rose 0.3% after rising 0.2% in June.
• CPI increased 2.7% year over year after the same increase in the prior month.
• Core CPI rose 3.1% from year-ago levels after it rose 2.9% in June.

Food prices held steady in July after increasing 0.3% in June. Grocery prices fell 0.1%, while restaurant prices increased 0.3%. Energy prices were mixed after holding steady last month. Utility gas prices fell 0.9%, fuel oil prices increased 1.8%, gasoline prices fell 2.2%, and electricity prices decreased 0.1%. Shelter prices rose 0.2% in July, the same as in June.