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Investing Specialists

Experts Forecast Long-Term Stock and Bond Returns: 2020 Edition

Our annual compilation of capital markets return assumptions, from BlackRock to Vanguard.


While recessionary worries gripped the market in 2018, economic news turned positive in 2019 and has remained so into January of this year. Accordingly, both the stock and bond markets have soared over the past year. Both asset classes have enjoyed an exceptionally strong decade, too: The S&P 500 has gained more than 13% since 2010, while the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index has returned a less princely--but still respectable--3.5%.

But are stocks and bonds likely to repeat those strong gains over the next decade? Not likely, according to my latest survey of capital markets forecasts released by leading investment firms. Thanks to equity valuations that are even more constrained than they were a year ago, most of the shops I featured in my now-annual compilation are anticipating meager returns from the stock market over the next decade. And with bond yields a good predictor of what fixed-income assets are likely to earn in the decade ahead, most firms acknowledge that today's yields (just over 2% for the Aggregate Index) portend thin gruel for bond investors, too.

Christine Benz does not own (actual or beneficial) shares in any of the securities mentioned above. Find out about Morningstar’s editorial policies.