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Grantham, Part 3

Grantham, Part 3

This video is part three of five from GMO's Jeremy Grantham's address at the 2018 Morningstar Investment Conference. You can also watch parts one, two, four, and five.

Jeremy Grantham: OK. But now the terrible news. Sorry about this. I tell you, it's hard to live with me, too. Feeding the 11.2 billion, the impact on food sufficiency of population growth and increasing wells, climate change, soil erosion, and many other factors. This is what world population looks like going nowhere forever. When Malthus writes it, it's still below 2 billion. When I get born, it's about 2.3, it has tripled in my lifetime the global population. Whenever you see a chart like that in investing, you know what to do: Go short. The good news that Malthus never dreamt about, our last best hope really is a declining fertility. In the developed countries, we're all below replacement level. The irony here is probably because we've discovered how incredibly expensive and inconvenient children are. This is my scientific reason. There are other reasons, which we'll get to, but they include waiting longer to have children and a side effect of toxicity. Iran is my hero, they used to have seven children, each woman in 1960. And now, they're down to 1.6. My other hero is Bangladesh, dirt-poor then and now, no oil. They also had seven children, and today, they're down to 2.2. It really is amazing. And all they've done is had a persistent program, semi-educated, little bit of training. The women go out into the village and they go out, and they go out, and they go out. And they try very hard, and they have done it. It can be done. 

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