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Aegon's Second-Half Results Are Decent; We're Long the Frisian

Analyst Note

| Henry Heathfield, CFA |

Aegon has released its results for second-half 2020 and these results look good to us. We maintain our EUR 4.5 fair value estimate and no moat rating. We will roll our model when we have the full balance sheet as a necessity, and this should be around March 18. Our fair value estimate is 0.41 times the second-half 2020 book value and at current levels the stock provides a 320-basis-point dividend yield. While management estimate a doubling of this current yield over the next few years, we think a more than 5% yield is conservatively achievable. Shares are undervalued.

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Company Profile

Business Description

Aegon is a Dutch headquartered insurance company with core operations that stretch across the U.S., Netherlands, and United Kingdom. The business also holds peripheral ventures in Spain, Portugal, and China and life insurance in Bermuda. Aegon management recently announced the sale of its Central and Eastern European operations to Vienna Insurance in what we think is an approximate fairly priced transaction. However, we would like to see these divestments go further with the sale of Spain and Portugal as well as the U.K. under the company’s new leadership.

Aegonplein 50, PO Box 85
The Hague, 2501 CB, Netherlands
T +31 703445458
Sector Financial Services
Industry Insurance - Diversified
Most Recent Earnings Dec 31, 2017
Fiscal Year End Dec 31, 2021
Stock Type
Employees 22,322