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Autodesk Inc ADSK

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Subscriptions Drive Stellar Q3 for Autodesk; Lagged Effects of Pandemic to Come; Shares Overvalued

Julie Bhusal Sharma Equity Analyst

Analyst Note

| Julie Bhusal Sharma |

Autodesk reported yet another beat to its top line and bottom line in its third-quarter release. Results were driven by continued strength in Autodesk subscription revenue as conversion amongst its maintenance user base remains high. Additionally, Autodesk benefitted from its customers being in better financial health in the third quarter, as less payment extensions were made as a result of the coronavirus. Despite another great quarter for Autodesk, the company warned of the lagged effects they expect in fiscal 2022 as a result of the nature of subscription revenue recognition. While we previously had factored in such a lag, the effect is greater than we expected, moderating our fiscal 2022 expectations. Considering the rosy third-quarter results sobered by what could be an anomalous 2022 ahead, we are maintaining our fair value estimate of $198 per share for wide-moat Autodesk. Share have remained flat upon news of the quarter, leaving shares trading at $258 per share. As a result, we continue to believe Autodesk is overvalued. Nonetheless, we reiterate our continued belief that Autodesk has built an extremely moaty company which we think will be well protected in the future.

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Company Profile

Business Description

Founded in 1982, Autodesk is an application software company that serves industries in architecture, engineering, and construction; product design and manufacturing; and media and entertainment. Autodesk software enables design, modeling, and rendering needs of these industries. The company has over 4 million paid subscribers across 180 countries.

111 McInnis Parkway
San Rafael, CA, 94903
T +1 415 507-5000
Sector Technology
Industry Software - Application
Most Recent Earnings Oct 31, 2020
Fiscal Year End Jan 31, 2021
Stock Type Speculative Growth
Employees 10,100