During its June 18 investor day, Amadeus laid out the case for its network effect—the primary source of its narrow economic moat—to endure over the next decade and gave 2023-26 sales and EBIT targets. Our fair value estimate is EUR 66 per share.
Amadeus' GDS network hosts content from most airlines and is used by many travel agents, resulting in significant industry share. Replicating this network would involve meaningful time and costs.
Bears
Corporate travel could be negatively affected by some prolonged use of video conferencing as a replacement for internal meetings and other business trips.
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Founded in 1987 by four major European airline carriers (Air France, Lufthansa, Iberia, and SAS), Amadeus became the world’s second global distribution system operator, or GDS, after Sabre’s development in the 1960s and 1970s. Today, among the top three GDS operators that control nearly 100% of industry revenue, Amadeus' 40%-plus market share ranks as the largest. Overall, Amadeus’ GDS segment represented 56% of total prepandemic sales in 2019. Additionally, the company has an expanding IT solutions division (44% of 2019 revenue) that addresses the airline, airport, rail, hotel, and travel agency markets. Transaction fees, which are tied to volume and not price, account for the bulk of consolidated sales and profits.