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PT Goto Gojek Tokopedia Tbk GOTO

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Company Report

GoTo Narrows Losses After Selling E-Commerce Unit, but Growth Still Uncertain as It Recalibrates

GoTo operates an on-demand service as its core business while also providing e-commerce on its platform, and competes by offering subsidies to entice consumers to make purchases on its platform. After years of subsidies have helped grow the user base to 64 million users, the company is still incurring heavy losses and is now shifting its focus on profitability by reducing subsidies. However, we believe this strategy shift creates significant uncertainty relating to GoTo’s growth trajectory in the long term as gross transactional volume growth decelerated significantly in 2023, which is a concern. GoTo reported a 255% operating margin loss in 2023, and while margins should improve this year after the subsidy reduction, we expect the reductions to cause e-commerce GTV to post only flat growth year on year compared with an 18% increase last year. Given the rate of deceleration, we have reservations about whether GoTo can balance both growth and profitability if it returns to GTV expansion. The massive deceleration questions whether GoTo users are deeply reliant on the platform and implies a low switching cost for its business.

Price vs Fair Value

GOTO is trading at a 159% premium.
Price
IDR 52.00
Fair Value
IDR 87.00
Uncertainty
Very High
1-Star Price
IDR 976.40
5-Star Price
IDR 84.00
Economic Moat
Rgq
Capital Allocation
Hnnsfjxcg

Bulls Say, Bears Say

Bulls

Indonesian e-commerce is estimated to grow 17%-20% in the next two years, according to the central bank of Indonesia.

Bears

Indonesian e-commerce is overcrowded, which may force some competitors to downsize or restructure their businesses.

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News

Trading Information

Previous Close Price
Day Range
52-Week Range
Bid/Ask
/
Market Cap
Volume/Avg
/

Key Statistics

Price/Earnings (Normalized)
Price/Sales
3.57
Dividend Yield (Trailing)
Dividend Yield (Forward)
Total Yield

Company Profile

GoTo is an Indonesian ecosystem that combines e-commerce, ride-hailing, delivery, and financial services under one app. The company operates primarily in Indonesia and is the product of a merger between Gojek and Tokopedia in May 2021, but recently divested the e-commerce business into a combined entity with TikTok Indonesia in 2024. Looking ahead, we expect the on-demand service to account for the majority of revenue while its financial services begin to ramp. Prior to the deconsolidation, 82% of nonfinancial services gross transactional value came from e-commerce, and the firm will begin to expand into financial services such as providing loans and buy now, pay later programs. The company competes with Grab in the ride-hailing and delivery business, and Sea and Lazada for e-commerce.
Sector
Technology
Industry
Software - Infrastructure
Stock Style Box
Large Growth
Total Number of Employees
4,356

Competitors

Valuation

Metric
GOTO
GRAB
BABA
Price/Earnings (Normalized)
142.638.44
Price/Book Value
1.912.271.29
Price/Sales
3.575.661.42
Price/Cash Flow
1,565.906.80
Price/Earnings
GOTO
GRAB
BABA

Financial Strength

Metric
GOTO
GRAB
BABA
Quick Ratio
3.053.031.55
Current Ratio
3.163.261.79
Interest Coverage
−210.90−3.926.67
Quick Ratio
GOTO
GRAB
BABA

Profitability

Metric
GOTO
GRAB
BABA
Return on Assets (Normalized)
−7.59%1.03%4.42%
Return on Equity (Normalized)
−10.04%1.39%7.83%
Return on Invested Capital (Normalized)
−8.85%0.01%7.04%
Return on Assets
GOTO
GRAB
BABA
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