Analyst Note| Michael Field, CFA |
With no-moat Maersk having raised its full-year guidance just last week, its positive first-quarter announcement won't come as a shock to most investors. Revenue increased a whopping 30% year over year, despite a lack of easy comparisons in the year-ago quarter, during which the pandemic had not yet materially affected the business. EBITDA margins reached 32.5% over the period as COVID-19 and the resultant disruption to business has created a situation in which capacity on certain routes has been squeezed massively, creating bottlenecks of opportunity for large carriers like Maersk. This is a situation diametrically opposed to the years of overcapacity seen in the mid-2010s, and one not helped by more recent events such as the Suez Canal fiasco. We will be updating our near-term forecasts accordingly. We expect this to have a modest impact on our DKK 13,900 fair value estimate, but given where the share price stands today, we believe there is little in the way of upside from here.