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Origin Energy Ltd ORG

Morningstar Rating
A$10.36 +0.01 (0.10%)
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Company Report

Origin Energy: Profit Rebound on Track

Origin Energy is tracking in line with our forecast for a strong rebound in earnings in fiscal 2024, mainly driven by the utility business. We leave our fiscal 2024 forecasts largely unchanged, but recent strength in electricity futures prices and oil prices has led us to lift expectations for fiscal 2025 proportional EBITDA by 10%. Longer-term forecasts are largely unchanged, and we maintain our AUD 9 per share fair value estimate. At current prices, the no-moat firm is fairly valued.

Price vs Fair Value

ORG is trading at a 885% premium.
Price
A$10.35
Fair Value
A$6.00
Uncertainty
High
1-Star Price
A$56.66
5-Star Price
A$7.70
Economic Moat
Zqyh
Capital Allocation
Rpfpvrfj

Bulls Say, Bears Say

Bulls

The Australia Pacific LNG project is the largest coal seam gas to LNG project in Australia and is generating strong returns in the current high price environment.

Bears

The value of APLNG is highly uncertain, given volatility in the oil price and the relatively high operating leverage.

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News

Trading Information

Previous Close Price
A$10.35
Day Range
A$10.2010.41
52-Week Range
A$7.7710.43
Bid/Ask
A$10.35 / A$10.39
Market Cap
A$17.85 Bil
Volume/Avg
3.1 Mil / 4.0 Mil

Key Statistics

Price/Earnings (Normalized)
11.23
Price/Sales
1.13
Dividend Yield (Trailing)
4.68%
Dividend Yield (Forward)
5.41%
Total Yield
4.61%

Company Profile

Origin Energy is a major vertically integrated Australian energy utility. Its energy retailing business is the largest in Australia, with about 4 million customers and a 33% market share. Its portfolio of base-load, intermediate, and peaking electricity plants is one of the largest in the national electricity market, with a capacity of 6,000 megawatts. Origin also operates and owns 27.5% of Australia Pacific LNG, which owns large coal seam gas fields and LNG export facilities in Queensland.
Sector
Energy
Industry
Oil & Gas Integrated
Stock Style Box
Large Value
Total Number of Employees
4,979

Competitors

Valuation

Metric
ORG
AGL
STO
Price/Earnings (Normalized)
11.2322.5311.62
Price/Book Value
1.891.281.11
Price/Sales
1.130.582.83
Price/Cash Flow
4.245.11
Price/Earnings
ORG
AGL
STO

Financial Strength

Metric
ORG
AGL
STO
Quick Ratio
0.830.801.05
Current Ratio
1.151.091.47
Interest Coverage
12.251.634.73
Quick Ratio
ORG
AGL
STO

Profitability

Metric
ORG
AGL
STO
Return on Assets (Normalized)
7.45%3.90%4.90%
Return on Equity (Normalized)
16.24%11.11%9.50%
Return on Invested Capital (Normalized)
12.39%7.09%5.94%
Return on Assets
ORG
AGL
STO
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Capital Allocation
Economic Moat
Market Cap
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RYDAF
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TTE
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BP
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PBR
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EQNR
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E
Eni SpA ADRJrlzplfLgz$50.1 Bil

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