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Northern Star Resources Ltd NST

Morningstar Rating
A$12.60 −0.08 (0.63%)
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Company Report

Gold Miners: We Initiate Coverage on Northern Star, Evolution Mining, and Perseus Mining

We commence coverage of Australia-based gold miners Northern Star, Evolution Mining, and Perseus Mining with fair value estimates of AUD 11.30, AUD 3.00, and AUD 2.00 per share, respectively. We initiate with no-moat and High Morningstar Uncertainty Ratings for all of these stocks. We think the shares of Northern Star and Evolution are overvalued, trading at premiums of 8% and 17%, respectively, while Perseus shares currently trade close to fair value.

Price vs Fair Value

NST is trading at a 12% premium.
Price
A$12.60
Fair Value
A$63.40
Uncertainty
High
1-Star Price
A$19.55
5-Star Price
A$1.85
Economic Moat
Cqnv
Capital Allocation
Vbjdyhn

Bulls Say, Bears Say

Bulls

The likely expansion in gold sales over our forecast period should keep Northern Star within the bottom half of the industry cost curve.

Bears

Future production is highly dependent on its Kalgoorlie production center, which represents around three fourths of reserves at the end of fiscal 2023.

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Trading Information

Previous Close Price
A$12.68
Day Range
A$12.3712.60
52-Week Range
A$9.9914.44
Bid/Ask
A$12.49 / A$12.60
Market Cap
A$14.48 Bil
Volume/Avg
2.8 Mil / 4.6 Mil

Key Statistics

Price/Earnings (Normalized)
22.89
Price/Sales
3.55
Dividend Yield
2.10%
Dividend Yield (Forward)
2.10%
Total Yield
3.02%

Company Profile

Northern Star is an Australia-based midtier global gold miner that sold around 1.6 million ounces of gold in fiscal 2023 from its three wholly owned mining operations in Australia and Alaska. Its current operations are the result of significant merger and acquisition activity including 13 acquisitions and four asset sales since 2010. Northern Star had roughly a decade of reserves at the end of fiscal 2023.
Sector
Basic Materials
Industry
Gold
Stock Style Box
Large Growth
Total Number of Employees
3,383

Competitors

Valuation

Metric
NST
KGC
AEM
Price/Earnings (Normalized)
22.8913.7325.07
Price/Book Value
1.711.181.32
Price/Sales
3.551.734.02
Price/Cash Flow
10.854.6110.25
Price/Earnings
NST
KGC
AEM

Financial Strength

Metric
NST
KGC
AEM
Quick Ratio
2.070.770.50
Current Ratio
3.302.701.99
Interest Coverage
13.626.6932.41
Quick Ratio
NST
KGC
AEM

Profitability

Metric
NST
KGC
AEM
Return on Assets (Normalized)
2.62%4.83%3.52%
Return on Equity (Normalized)
3.65%8.48%5.22%
Return on Invested Capital (Normalized)
3.60%6.14%5.02%
Return on Assets
NST
KGC
AEM

Gold Industry Comparables

Ticker
Name
Morningstar Rating for Stocks
Economic Moat
Market Cap
NEM
Newmont CorpDkf$45.8 Bil
ZIJMY
Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd ADRRgnxkkk$42.9 Bil
ZIJMF
Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class HFwmjd$42.9 Bil
GOLD
Barrick Gold CorpGfdl$30.2 Bil
AEM
Agnico Eagle Mines LtdSkdq$26.1 Bil
WPM
Wheaton Precious Metals CorpJpd$21.7 Bil
FNV
Franco-Nevada CorpCyjy$20.6 Bil
GFI
Gold Fields Ltd ADRCsyqd$12.7 Bil
GFIOF
Gold Fields LtdRbrpq$12.7 Bil
KGC
Kinross Gold CorpQhhx$7.2 Bil