Company Reports

Northern Star shares are up 4%, despite rejecting a conditional, nonbinding, indicative proposal from Gold Fields via a scheme of arrangement. If implemented, Northern Star shareholders would have received 0.3125 Gold Fields shares and AUD 7.25 cash for each share they own.

Northern Star's adjusted fiscal 2026 NPAT rose 26% to AUD 1.8 billion or AUD 1.24 per share. It benefited from higher realized gold prices, more than offsetting lower sales volumes and higher unit costs. But the final AUD 30 cps dividend and total of AUD 55 cps for the fiscal year are unchanged.

The gold price continues to fall. At around USD 4,200 per ounce now, it is down 13% since we last updated our assumed prices. ETF outflows have accelerated, consistent with their tendency to be procyclical and the marginal buyers or sellers. Solid central bank buying partially offsets this.

Northern Star is a midtier global gold miner with mines in Western Australia and Alaska. Its portfolio is a result of significant corporate activity, including 14 acquisitions and four asset sales since 2010. Notable transactions include the purchase of Pogo in Alaska in 2018 and half of the Kalgoorlie Super Pit mine, or Super Pit, in Western Australia, from Newmont in 2020. Northern Star subsequently merged with Saracen in 2021, adding the other half of the Super Pit, as well as the Carosue Dam and Thunderbox assets in Western Australia.

On June 2, Northern Star shares are 12% higher on a poor day for many Australian-listed gold miners after activist investor Elliott bought a 4% stake, pressing for change. Elliott's primary goal is sale of all or part of the firm, or failing that, management and board changes to hasten turnaround.

Northern Star is a midtier global gold miner with mines in Western Australia and Alaska. Its portfolio is a result of significant corporate activity, including 14 acquisitions and four asset sales since 2010. Notable transactions include the purchase of Pogo in Alaska in 2018 and half of the Kalgoorlie Super Pit mine, or Super Pit, in Western Australia, from Newmont in 2020. Northern Star subsequently merged with Saracen in 2021, adding the other half of the Super Pit, as well as the Carosue Dam and Thunderbox assets in Western Australia.

After reaching another historical high around USD 5,400 per ounce in January, gold belied its safe haven status by falling 20% in response to the Iran war, before recovering to around USD 4,800 now. The fall was driven by ETF outflows: ETFs tend to be procyclical and the marginal buyers or sellers.

Northern Star is a midtier global gold miner with mines in Western Australia and Alaska. Its portfolio is a result of significant corporate activity, including 14 acquisitions and four asset sales since 2010. Notable transactions include the purchase of Pogo in Alaska in 2018 and half of the Kalgoorlie Super Pit mine, or Super Pit, in Western Australia, from Newmont in 2020. Northern Star subsequently merged with Saracen in 2021, adding the other half of the Super Pit, as well as the Carosue Dam and Thunderbox assets in Western Australia.

Northern Star shares are down almost 20% after it again downgraded fiscal 2026 volume guidance. Gold sales volumes of 220,000 ounces for January and February 2026 were lower than expected, with the lost ounces unlikely to be recovered over the rest of the fiscal year.

Northern Star is a midtier global gold miner with mines in Western Australia and Alaska. Its portfolio is a result of significant corporate activity, including 14 acquisitions and four asset sales since 2010. Notable transactions include the purchase of Pogo in Alaska in 2018 and half of the Kalgoorlie Super Pit mine, or Super Pit, in Western Australia, from Newmont in 2020. Northern Star subsequently merged with Saracen in 2021, adding the other half of the Super Pit, as well as the Carosue Dam and Thunderbox assets in Western Australia.

Northern Star's first-half fiscal 2026 underlying net profit after tax grew 49% on last year to AUD 760 million, as stronger gold prices more than offset rising unit costs and modestly lower volumes. It declared an unchanged dividend of AUD 0.25, fully franked.

After a brief pullback in October, the gold price resumed its relentless rise and is now trading at yet another historical high of around USD 4,600 per ounce. Concerns over the Fed's independence add to strong ETF and central bank purchases and ongoing US fiscal deficits as major tailwinds.

Northern Star is a midtier global gold miner with mines in Western Australia and Alaska. Its portfolio is a result of significant corporate activity, including 14 acquisitions and four asset sales since 2010. Notable transactions include the purchase of Pogo in Alaska in 2018 and half of the Kalgoorlie Super Pit mine, or Super Pit, in Western Australia, from Newmont in 2020. Northern Star subsequently merged with Saracen in 2021, adding the other half of the Super Pit, as well as the Carosue Dam and Thunderbox assets in Western Australia.

The gold bull market continues. Now around USD 3,850 per ounce, gold is up 47% so far in 2025 and near historical highs. Safe-haven buying is a major driver, led by strong ETF and central bank purchases, with ongoing US fiscal deficits, a weaker US dollar, and lower real interest rates assisting.

Northern Star is a midtier global gold miner with mines in Western Australia and Alaska. Its portfolio is a result of significant corporate activity, including 14 acquisitions and four asset sales since 2010. Notable transactions include the purchase of Pogo in Alaska in 2018 and half of the Kalgoorlie Super Pit mine, or Super Pit, in Western Australia, from Newmont in 2020. Northern Star subsequently merged with Saracen in 2021, adding the other half of the Super Pit, as well as the Carosue Dam and Thunderbox assets in Western Australia. It bought developer De Grey Mining, owner of the attractive Hemi gold project in Western Australia, in May 2025.

Northern Star's fiscal 2025 adjusted net profit after tax of AUD 1.4 billion, or AUD 1.19 per share, doubled on last year due to the 29% higher realized gold price. With volumes broadly stable, this more than offset higher unit cash costs. A fully franked final dividend of AUD 0.30 was declared.

Northern Star is a midtier global gold miner with mines in Western Australia and Alaska. Its portfolio is a result of significant corporate activity, including 14 acquisitions and four asset sales since 2010. Notable transactions include the purchase of Pogo in Alaska in 2018 and half of the Kalgoorlie Super Pit mine, or Super Pit, in Western Australia, from Newmont in 2020. Northern Star subsequently merged with Saracen in 2021, adding the other half of the Super Pit, as well as the Carosue Dam and Thunderbox assets in Western Australia. It bought developer De Grey Mining, owner of the attractive Hemi gold project in Western Australia, in May 2025.

The gold price has been on a tear in 2025, rising 27% to USD 3,330 per ounce, close to historical highs. Safe-haven buying is likely the main driver, with investors concerned about tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty, as well as the US fiscal deficit.

Demand from China has been the main driver of rising commodity prices in the past two decades. More recently, gold is close to historical highs on safe-haven demand. However, driven by weak China steel end-user demand and slower global growth, most other commodity prices have fallen.

Gold is higher in the March quarter as worries over tariffs affecting economic growth see a flight to safety. Despite likely slower global growth, copper is up as investors try to get ahead of potential tariffs on US copper imports. Iron ore is flat, while metallurgical and thermal coal are down.