Analyst Note| Jon Mills |
We retain our fair value estimate for no-moat BHP of AUD 39.50 per share after a solid third quarter of fiscal 2023 production. Our fair value estimate reflects our recently updated commodity price assumptions (see our recent note published April 21 “Miners: FVEs Largely Unchanged as Generally Lower Commodity Prices Offset by Weaker Aussie Dollar”). BHP’s Western Australian Iron Ore Operations produced about 59 million metric tons (BHP’s share), in line with both the previous corresponding period and our estimate. We continue to forecast iron ore production of about 255 million metric tons (BHP’s share) in fiscal 2023.