United Airlines Earnings: Lowering Fair Value Estimate as High Fuel Costs Remain in the Forecast

Key Morningstar Metrics for United Airlines Holdings

• Fair Value Estimate
  : $98.00
• Morningstar Rating
  : ★★★
• Morningstar Economic Moat Rating
  : None
• Morningstar Uncertainty Rating
  : Very High

What We Thought of United Airlines Holdings’ Earnings

United Airlines Holdings UAL earned 17.0% more revenue and 17.0% higher yield on 1.3% more capacity in the third quarter, while fuel costs rose 62.0% and structural costs increased 7.8% compared with 2025, providing 3.6% more operating profit.

Why it matters: United has joined Delta in offering industry-leading travel segmentation, allowing it to outearn most of the industry. Its fortunes are tied to continued demand for premium travel experiences from well-heeled consumers and price-insensitive business travelers.

• Travel demand so far in 2026 mostly resembles early 2025 volumes, with 0.6% fewer travelers passing through security by the end of September. United flew 3.9% more passengers in the first nine months of the year compared with 2025, despite ticket prices on the rise industrywide following fuel cost spikes.
• Management said it expects jet fuel prices to remain high through 2027 and that the airline could pass nearly all of the cost on to passengers through airfares, as it did in 2026.

The bottom line: We have slightly reduced our fair value estimate for no-moat United shares to $98 per share from $102, reflecting incremental operating cost growth, such as landing fees and aircraft rent. Fluctuations in the fuel price forecast do not alter our valuation, as we also assume the airline will adjust its revenue yield to match.