Rivian: Shares Fall as Deliveries Decline

Key Morningstar Metrics for Rivian Automotive

• Fair Value Estimate: $15.00
• Morningstar Rating: ★★
• Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: None
• Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: Very High

Rivian RIVN reported 9,745 deliveries in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 42,284 for the year. Shares were down around 3% at the time of writing on Jan. 2.

Why it matters: Fourth-quarter and full-year deliveries were down 31% and 18%, respectively. Rivian was affected by the expiration of the US electric vehicle tax credit in September, as the company sells most of its vehicles in the United States.

• We expect US EV sales will continue to fall through the first three quarters of 2026. However, for Rivian, we forecast 2026 deliveries will rise due to the launch of the new R2 midsize sport utility vehicle, which will be priced starting at $45,000, far lower than the R1 truck and full-size SUV.
• Rivian plans to begin production of the R2 vehicles in 2026. We expect the company will deliver lower volumes in the first half of 2026 as production ramps up. We see growth in the second half.

The bottom line: We maintain our $15 per share fair value estimate for no-moat Rivian. The 2025 deliveries were slightly above our estimate but just below the midpoint of guidance and the consensus estimate. In our view, the share selloff is due to weakening expectations for 2026.

• At current prices, we view Rivian stock as overvalued, trading a little more than 25% above our fair value estimate and in 2-star territory. We think the market is optimistic that Rivian’s autonomous driving hardware and software will drive deliveries growth.
• We believe Rivian’s software-defined vehicles will drive long-term growth, but the autonomous driving software, which will roll out this year, will begin as a level 2 system and need at least several years to improve. Meanwhile, we see negative free cash flow over at least the next four years.