Just Eat Takeaway: Better Free Cash Flow, EBITDA Guidance; Fresh Share Buyback Program Announced

Just Eat Takeaway’s TKWY third-quarter total orders fell 7% year over year (versus down 12% in the half and down 10% year to date) and gross transaction value, or GTV, declined 7% (versus down 7% in the half and down 7% year to date). The Southern Europe, Australia, and New Zealand markets, and North America remain the main detractors, with orders down 13% year on year in both regions. Positively, GTV improved in the important Northern Europe market—up 6% year on year versus 2% in the half—and in the U.K. and Ireland market (GTV up 5% versus down 3% in the first half), building on the positive momentum in the second quarter (GTV rose 3% in both Northern Europe and the U.K. and Ireland). Management raised the outlook for 2023 adjusted EBITDA to EUR 310 million versus EUR 275 million before and now has top-line guidance of negative 4%, at the low end of the previous guidance range (GTV at constant currency). On free cash flow, management also upgraded guidance as it now sees free cash flow breaking even in the second half of the year and being positive thereafter, versus breakeven by mid-2024. Given the positive developments in profitability and cash flow, the firm announced a fresh share buyback program, of up to EUR 150 million or about 6% of market cap.

Although we expect to tweak our midterm top-line and bottom-line expectations after we digest this update, we don’t expect to materially change our EUR 81 fair value estimate as our long-term value drivers remain intact. Shares trade deep in 5-star territory.

In our view, the company’s positive free cash flow earlier than mid-2024 is a hard rerating catalyst for the stock and is underappreciated by the market. We had previously highlighted our expectations for further share repurchases in the next 12 months and stronger demand-generating marketing/category expansion investments in key markets—the U.K. being a prime example—in a period where competitors are scaling back to hit profit targets/guidance.