JPMorgan Chase Earnings: Easily Hurdles Sky-High Expectations

Key Morningstar Metrics for JPMorgan Chase

• Fair Value Estimate
  : $320.00
• Morningstar Rating
  : ★★★
• Morningstar Economic Moat Rating
  : Wide
• Morningstar Uncertainty Rating
  : Medium

What We Thought of JPMorgan Chase’s Earnings

JPMorgan Chase JPM reported strong second-quarter 2026 earnings results on July 14, sending shares up a low-single-digit percentage on the back of managed net revenue growth and ex-notables earnings per share growth of 14.8% and 23.7%, respectively, from a year ago.

Why it matters: While ebullient capital markets have been a rising tide lifting all boats, the bank’s eye-popping investment banking and equity capital markets results appeared to surpass the sky-high expectations investors priced into shares over the quarter, complementing strong card services results.

• With investment banking and equity markets revenue up 45% and 86%, respectively, we now believe the super-cycles propelling each to be more immense and persistent than initially pegged. Still, we tread cautiously toward extrapolating these cyclical business results too far into the future.
• The largest card issuer in the United States furthered its dominance by growing credit and debit volume faster than peers at 10% off a larger base, while improving credit metrics led full-year net charge-off guidance to improve by 20 basis points to 3.2%.

The bottom line: We are raising our fair value estimate for the wide-moat firm to $320 per share from $311 after digesting these robust results as we raise near-term trading and investment banking forecasts and longer-term card and asset management growth. We view shares as fairly valued.

• Due to the undeniable prevalence of the broader enterprise, we believe the strength of the asset and wealth management segment is often overlooked, and we are slightly raising our forecast net asset inflows to capture the continued execution of this franchise.
• With the Apple Card portfolio transfer not occurring until at least late 2027, we believe the organic momentum in the card services business is indicative of a flywheel in which better customer breadth improves reward offerings and underwriting capability, increasing long-run potential.