Boeing Earnings: Climbing Out of a Very Deep Hole

Key Morningstar Metrics for Boeing

• Fair Value Estimate: $246.00
• Morningstar Rating: ★★★
• Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: Wide
• Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: High

What We Thought of Boeing’s Earnings

Boeing BA delivered 117 737 and 27 787 jets in the fourth quarter of 2025, up 225% and 80%, respectively, since 2024. The firm also recorded $600 million more in losses on its KC-46 tanker program for the US Air Force, offset by a hefty $9.6 billion gain on the sale of its digital aviation business.

Why it matters: We estimate that half of Boeing’s enterprise value is derived from its 737 product line. Increasing the rate at which the company can make and deliver these jets is the single biggest driver of near- and long-term profitability and cash flow, and Boeing received FAA approval to do so in October 2025.

• Boeing has designed four versions of its newest generation of 737 jets. The 737 MAX 8 and 737 MAX 9 entered service by 2018, but its shorter 737 MAX 7 and stretched 737 MAX 10 have had their flight certification delayed by the FAA because new materials and temperature tolerances in their engine nacelles complicate deicing.
• Our forecast for 2026 deliveries of 737s (including shipping previously built ones from inventory) is 117 more jets than the 447 the company achieved in 2025, and we estimate the company may deliver 38 more 787s than it did last year. Both should be positive developments for the company’s turnaround trajectory.

The bottom line: Our fair value estimate for wide-moat Boeing remains $246 per share. The shares trade very close to our current fair value estimate.

Coming up: We’ll eagerly monitor Boeing’s progress on its 737 and 787 deliveries, as well as flight testing and certification of its newest and largest jet, the 777X, due later in 2026. Provided it progresses to plan, we believe the company will achieve its approximately $3 billion free cash flow goal in 2026 and reach $10 billion by 2028.