Autodesk Delivers, but Shares Expensive

For the quarter, revenue rose 15% year over year to $560 million. Reported subscription plan ARR increased 103% to $1.4 billion while maintenance plan ARR fell 31% to $725 million. The changes were the result of the firm’s ongoing business model transition. With recurring revenue at $532 million in the quarter, this figure now reflects a very high recurring revenue rate of 95%, up from about the mid-50% range in fiscal 2016. This shift represents Autodesk’s success in migrating users to new subscription plans. We continue to forecast a successful, wholesale transition of the remaining maintenance plan subscribers over the next few years. Net new subscriptions were 101,000 and we think there will be an acceleration through the year as we predict a total yearly net new addition of 522,000 subscriptions.

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