PitchBook: Anthropic’s Leaked Financials Reflect Fast Growth, but Not a $2 Trillion Valuation

Key Takeaways

• Anthropic’s revenue was nearly $4.6 billion in 2025, and by late July 2026, the business was generating more than $65.0 billion annually.
• Two customers supplied nearly a quarter of 2025 revenue, and many large customers can cut spending at any time, which would reduce revenue without a corresponding decrease in costs.
• At a $2 trillion valuation, investors would pay just under 31 times the July run rate. That price assumes rising margins, stable customers, and productive use of the contracted capacity.
• Compute costs falling as a share of revenue and Q3 revenue well above the $16.3 billion implied by a flat July pace would strengthen the valuation case, but investors would still need a credible path to sustained free cash flow.

Anthropic confidentially filed its draft IPO prospectus in June. The figures in this article come from reporting on that draft and separate operating updates, because the public filing has not been posted, and we will reconcile each one when it is. The recently leaked draft provides the most detailed look yet at the company’s financials, and what stands out is the speed of growth.

Revenue grew about 12-fold in 2025, from roughly $386 million to nearly $4.6 billion. The pace then accelerated. First-quarter 2026 revenue of $4.73 billion exceeded the entire prior year, and second-quarter revenue topped $11.50 billion on a preliminary basis. By late July, the run rate, which annualizes the most recent month, passed $65 billion.

To assess Anthropic’s valuation, we use the July run rate, because it better reflects the company’s current scale. Compared with 2025 revenue, $2 trillion is about 435 times sales, but that does not capture subsequent growth. Against the July run rate, it is just under 31 times. That annualized pace remains subject to changes in customer spending and pricing, and should be tested against subsequent quarterly results. Justifying the proposed valuation requires continued growth and sustained margin improvement beyond what the reported financials establish.

Compute Drives the Real Loss

The 2025 net loss of about $42 billion does not measure cash burn. Roughly $34 billion is a non-cash remeasurement of convertible notes, which are investor loans that convert into shares. As Anthropic’s valuation rose, the notes became more valuable, and accounting rules require the company to book that increase as a loss.

The operating loss, which excludes the remeasurement, was more than $8 billion. It widened from 2024, even as revenue rose about 12-fold, with compute accounting for most of it. Anthropic spent $7.33 billion on compute and infrastructure in 2025, roughly triple the 2024 level and more than its revenue for the year. That line made up 58% of operating expenses.

Compute behaves differently at Anthropic than at a traditional software company. Most software costs little to serve once built, whereas Anthropic pays for computing power on every request and again to train each new generation of models. Margins widen only if the company earns more revenue per dollar of compute.

The second quarter of 2026 provided an encouraging operating signal, with positive adjusted operating income excluding stock-based compensation. That result does not establish cash generation or gross-margin improvement. The draft does not disclose gross margin, the share of revenue left after the cost of serving customers, which is the figure we most want to see.

We expect the remeasurement charge to get larger before the affected notes convert. Amazon, one of the noteholders, marked its Anthropic notes at $42.2 billion on March 31 and $97.9 billion on June 30, a $55.7 billion increase in one quarter. If Anthropic books a comparable change, its 2026 financial statements could show a very large net loss, even as the operating business turned profitable on an adjusted basis in the second quarter. The charge should end for notes that convert to shares at the IPO, although conversion is subject to ownership limits.

$518 Billion in Commitments—Most of Them Fixed

The most consequential disclosure in the reported draft is the size of Anthropic’s infrastructure commitments: about $518 billion over roughly a decade, spread across six partners. Broadcom-related equipment leases account for $161.2 billion, Google for $111.1 billion, and Amazon for $110.0 billion. The balance is up to $84.5 billion with xAI, $31.4 billion with Microsoft, and more than $20.0 billion of capacity from AMD.

About 80% of the total is noncancelable or payable regardless of usage. The Google and Amazon agreements require Anthropic to pay any shortfall if it uses less than it committed to. The Broadcom-related leases can be terminated only upon default. The Microsoft contract can be terminated only upon Microsoft’s uncured material breach. The xAI agreement (16% of the total) is the exception, because most of it can be canceled with 90 days’ notice.

The available reporting does not provide a year-by-year payment schedule. Spreading the noncancelable portion evenly over 10 years yields an illustrative average of $41.4 billion per year, roughly 64% of the July run rate and more than five times 2025 compute spending. That average does not establish what Anthropic will owe in any individual year. We would expect actual payments to rise over time as contracted capacity comes online, making the year-by-year table in the public filing more important than the headline total.

The reasoning behind the contracts holds up. Data centers take years to build, power is scarce in many markets, and only a few companies make advanced AI chips, so a lab that waits for demand before securing capacity falls behind. The same contracts could turn a slowdown into a cash problem. Lower prices or slower adoption could reduce revenue without reducing what Anthropic owes. More efficient models could improve margins, but would also increase the amount of work Anthropic must sell to keep its contracted capacity fully utilized.

Google, Amazon, and AMD account for about $241 billion of the commitments, nearly half the total, and each is an Anthropic shareholder or has agreed to become one. Amazon and Google already hold large stakes, and AMD has committed to buy up to $5 billion of stock. Those ties secured capacity when it was scarce. They also mean a few companies collect a large share of Anthropic’s spending while holding equity that gains as its valuation rises, and IPO investors should read the terms of those agreements with that in mind.

Fixed Costs, Flexible Revenue

Anthropic’s revenue is both concentrated and sensitive to customer spending decisions. Two customers accounted for nearly a quarter of 2025 revenue, roughly $1.1 billion, and many large customers are not on long-term contracts, leaving them free to cut or shift their spending. Set against commitments that run into the 2030s, that exposure matters. Revenue can fall within a quarter, while minimum infrastructure payments remain committed for years.

Amazon and Google marketplaces generated 47% of 2025 revenue. Anthropic reports those sales gross and records roughly $351 million in distribution fees as operating expenses. Investors should consider those fees alongside compute costs when comparing Anthropic’s revenue multiples and margins with peers.

The risk extends beyond a drop in AI spending. A customer could keep increasing its AI budget while shifting part of its work to OpenAI, Google, or another provider, and Anthropic would lose revenue even as its minimum infrastructure payments remained the same. The mismatch also works in Anthropic’s favor when usage grows within contracted capacity, because fixed costs spread across a larger revenue base and margins can widen quickly. Once the company reports publicly, the metrics that will show which way this is going are existing-customer spending growth, customer concentration, the share of revenue from minimum-spend contracts, and utilization of the capacity Anthropic has paid for.

What $2 Trillion Requires

Each step-up in the revenue base sharply lowers the multiple. A $2 trillion price is about 435 times 2025 revenue, less than 44 times the annualized second-quarter revenue of more than $46 billion and just under 31 times the July run rate.

With rapid growth evident, valuation turns on how much of that revenue becomes free cash flow, which is the cash left after operating costs and capital spending. $150 billion of annual revenue at a 30% free cash flow margin would produce $45 billion a year, and $2 trillion is about 44 times that. If Anthropic has to keep reinvesting a large share of revenue in compute and training, the same revenue supports a much lower value. Payments under the $518 billion of infrastructure commitments must be incorporated into that cash flow forecast as they fall due, without counting costs already included a second time. We expect cash generation to replace the run rate as the number that investors focus on as the IPO approaches.

The leak strengthens the case that Anthropic is a very large, fast-growing business and weakens the case for paying $2 trillion for it today. In our view, the remaining valuation question is whether that growth can produce durable cash returns. A $2 trillion price further assumes margins rise, customers stay, and the contracted capacity is used, but the available disclosures are insufficient to establish that Anthropic can sustain all three.

Governance Limits Public Shareholders

Under the proposed structure, IPO buyers would have little say in how the company is run. The seven co-founders would control through Founder LLC, a Class F share carrying 50.1% of the voting power. The Long-Term Benefit Trust, a separate oversight body, would elect four of the seven directors. Anthropic will remain a public benefit corporation, which allows it to weigh safety and the public interest alongside shareholder returns, and the draft notes that it chose not to build image and video generation models so its compute goes to research and safety. Public shareholders would therefore have limited influence over capital allocation and model-release decisions, and we think that warrants a discount to the multiple that growth alone would support.

What to Watch in Anthropic’s Public Filing

The public filing should help close the gaps left by the leak. We will read these disclosures first.

Anthropic has converted demand for AI into revenue faster than we expected and has committed to a substantial expansion of its computing capacity. At about $2 trillion, the proposed valuation assumes that growth continues, customers stay, contracted capacity is used, and margins rise enough to generate tens of billions of dollars in free cash flow a year. We would need to see meaningful progress on those points in the public filing before supporting that valuation. Third-quarter revenue well above $16.3 billion, or evidence that compute costs are falling as a share of revenue, would strengthen the case, but would not by itself establish that $2 trillion is justified.