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Amazon Earnings: E-Commerce Improves, AWS Stabilizes, and Margins Surge

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Wide-moat Amazon AMZN reported good third-quarter results and provided better-than-expected guidance for the fourth quarter. Profitability was strong and is expected to remain healthy in the near term. While e-commerce was solid and continues to rebound, Amazon Web Services optimization has stabilized, although growth fell slightly shy of our expectations. Still, commentary was encouraging about AWS improving further over the next several quarters. Continued operational improvements brought on by the move to regional hubs have resulted in better operating leverage than anticipated. We still envision healthy long-term growth driven by e-commerce proliferation, AWS, and advertising, and believe the biggest near-term issue remains the health of the consumer rather than business spending on the cloud. After increasing our profitability assumptions modestly based on results and guidance, we are increasing our fair value estimate to $155 per share, from $150 previously, and see shares as attractive.

We continue to see positive developments on the demand front. Third-quarter revenue grew 13% year over year as reported and 11% in constant currency, to $143.1 billion, compared with the high end of guidance at $143 billion. The two key segments, AWS and advertising, grew 12% and 26% as reported, respectively, over the year-ago period. Amazon’s advertising growth continues to outpace that of its large internet peers. Relative to our model, online stores, third-party seller services, or 3P, and advertising drove the vast majority of upside. AWS, physical stores, and other were each slightly shy of our expectations.

Profitability was impressive, with operating profit coming in at $11.2 billion, compared with the high end of guidance at $8.5 billion, resulting in an operating margin of 7.8%, compared with 2.0% a year ago. This is the second-highest margin level in at least the last five years. North America, International, and the AWS segment all saw margins expanding sequentially.

The author or authors do not own shares in any securities mentioned in this article. Find out about Morningstar’s editorial policies.

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About the Author

Dan Romanoff

Senior Equity Analyst
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Dan Romanoff, CPA, is a senior equity research analyst on the technology, media, and telecommunications team for Morningstar Research Services LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Morningstar, Inc. He covers software.

Before Joining Morningstar in 2019, Romanoff spent 12 years in buy-side equity research covering the technology and telecommunications sectors, most recently at Holland Capital Management. Prior to that, he spent five years in sell-side equity research as an associate analyst at UBS and a senior analyst at Credit Suisse covering various areas within technology, including hardware, software, and semiconductors. Romanoff also has worked as an auditor and in valuation services for major public accounting firms.

Romanoff holds a bachelor’s degree in accountancy and a Master of Business Administration in finance, both from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. He also holds the Certified Public Accountant and Accredited in Business Valuation designations.

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