4 Undervalued Stocks to Buy Before the Big Game

It’s almost time for the big game: The Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots will kick off in Santa Clara, California, on Sunday. And in what has become an annual tradition, companies will spend millions of dollars to advertise their products during the broadcast.

At Morningstar, we think it’s a gamble to buy the stock of a company that’s advertising during the game because you’re hoping for a postgame pop in the stock price. We suggest following Morningstar’s playbook instead: Buy undervalued stocks of high-quality companies and hold them for the long term. We think that’s the winning strategy for any market.

That being said, there are some wide-moat companies advertising during the game whose stocks look undervalued today. We think these are great stocks to buy and hold for the long term.

4 Undervalued Stocks to Buy Before the Big Game This Weekend

1. Intuit INTU
2. Meta Platforms META
3. Mondelez International MDLZ
4. Salesforce CRM

Here’s a little bit about each wide-moat stock, including commentary from the Morningstar analyst who follows the company.

Intuit

• Fair Value Estimate: $720.00
• Price/Fair Value: 0.60
• Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: Medium
• Morningstar Rating: ★★★★★
• Sector: Technology

Here’s Morningstar analyst Luke Yang‘s outlook for this wide-moat company.

Intuit owns an array of small business and tax software products that enjoy dominant market positions in their respective verticals. We think Intuit Enterprise Suite, the company’s entry-level enterprise resource planning platform that combines Mailchimp’s front-office and QuickBooks’ back-office functionalities, is a competitive product supporting Intuit’s expansion among midsize companies. In addition, Intuit’s done-for-you products, offering real-time artificial intelligence and expert support across QuickBooks, Mailchimp, and TurboTax, should become an effective tool that lifts average revenue per customer.

Unlike large enterprises that require complex information systems with advanced capabilities, small and midsize businesses value the convenience of managing their accounting records, customer information, and payrolls on one platform. We think Intuit’s introduction of IES is a favorable strategic move because it combines QuickBooks’ and Mailchimp’s strengths to reduce overhead for high-growth businesses that otherwise need to manage multiple systems on a daily basis. Meanwhile, single-purpose, small-business-oriented software like QuickBooks delivers limited functionality at a monthly cost of several hundred dollars or less. Multipurpose ERP systems targeting midsize companies like Oracle NetSuite are usually priced at tens of thousands of dollars per month including initiation costs. We think IES, as an entry-level ERP service with a monthly price of several thousand dollars, could help Intuit capture new growth opportunities by narrowing the gap between the two existing categories on the market.

TurboTax Live is Intuit’s assisted tax-filing experience that connects individual users with tax accountants in real time. Intuit also offers QB Live and Mailchimp Live, matching small businesses with accounting or marketing professionals. We think both mechanisms have become Intuit’s key differentiators from competitive offerings that are incremental to the company’s moat. The high ARPCs of Live products also present attractive upsell opportunities that drive critical top-line growth in mature markets like small business accounting and DIY tax.

Read Morningstar’s full report about Intuit.

Meta Platforms

• Fair Value Estimate: $850.00
• Price/Fair Value: 0.81
• Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: High
• Morningstar Rating: ★★★★
• Sector: Communication Services

Morningstar senior analyst Malik Ahmed Khan published this note after Meta issued its latest earnings report.

Meta reported strong fourth-quarter earnings, with sales growing 24% to $60 billion. Operating margins contracted 700 basis points to 41% as AI-related costs continue to mount. The firm’s 2026 guidance calls for $125 billion in capital expenditures and $162 billion in operating expenses.

Why it matters: Meta’s ad business continues to perform at full capacity, with the firm’s investments in artificial intelligence continuing to drive metrics such as engagement, ad efficacy, and content recommendation.

• Engagement metrics, including time spent on Instagram and Facebook, remain strong, with video engagement particularly strong. As users spend more time on its platform, Meta can show them more ads, driving ad impressions up 18% for the quarter.
• We were similarly impressed by Meta leveraging its AI investments to drive growth in ad clicks (up 3.5% for Facebook) and conversions (1% increase for Instagram). While marginal, these improvements can unlock substantial topline dollars considering Meta’s scale.

The bottom line: We maintain our $850 fair value estimate for wide-moat Meta, with the firm’s outperformance on sales offset by its 2026 capital and operating expenses guidance coming in ahead of our estimates. Despite shares being up, we continue to view them as undervalued.

• We think that as the year continues, investors will align with our bullish view on Meta as more datapoints regarding the impact of the firm’s AI investments on its core ads business come to the fore.

Coming up: Meta expects sales for the first quarter to grow a whopping 30%, driven primarily by a healthy demand for its ad products. We expect this strength to continue into the remainder of the year, and model 2026 sales growth at 25%.

• We expect the launch of Meta’s latest large language model in the coming months, with the LLM likely to be competitive with frontier labs such as Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic.

Read Morningstar’s full report about Meta Platforms.

Mondelez International

• Fair Value Estimate: $73.00
• Price/Fair Value: 0.81
• Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: Low
• Morningstar Rating: ★★★★★
• Sector: Consumer Defensive

Morningstar director Erin Lash provides her take on Mondelez after the wide-moat company reported earnings this week.

Organic sales popped 5% in the final three months of Mondelez’s fiscal 2025, on the heels of a nearly 10% benefit from higher prices. However, the adjusted gross margin declined by 100 basis points to 30.5% as inflation and an unfavorable mix outweighed higher prices and lower manufacturing costs.

Why it matters: Following pronounced inflation-induced pricing over the past few years, we think Mondelez is poised to reignite investment in consumer-valued innovation and marketing, while also expanding its reach in alternative channels.

• Efforts to increase its appeal to value-conscious consumers could cap volumes over the near term (as Mondelez measures volume change by weight rather than units), but we believe increasing its exposure to these underpenetrated channels and expanding pack-size options is a sound course of action.

The bottom line: We don’t expect to alter our $73 fair value estimate after digesting results and guidance (up to 2% organic sales growth and up to 5% adjusted EPS growth). Mondelez shares fell 4% on the news, but we think investors should add this wide-moat name to their shopping carts.

• Despite market concerns about inflation and the growing penetration of GLP-1 drugs, we see prudence in its spending behind its brands and capabilities, which should support its leading competitive position long term.
• Cocoa costs have retreated from sky-high levels, but the near-term benefit to Mondelez is limited, as it had already locked in its cocoa needs for fiscal 2026. Still, we see prudence in diversifying supply beyond West Africa, which should blunt the impact of future wild swings.

Between the lines: North America remained challenged, with organic sales down 0.5%, driven by lower volumes and an unfavorable mix (a 3.7% headwind).

• But we posit that adherence to its strategic playbook—anchored in expanding its fare distribution, investing in its brands, empowering local leaders, and unlocking supply chain efficiencies—is wise.

Read Morningstar’s full report about Mondelez International.

Salesforce

• Fair Value Estimate: $325.00
• Price/Fair Value: 0.60
• Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: High
• Morningstar Rating: ★★★★
• Sector: Technology

In a December note after Salesforce reported earnings, Morningstar senior analyst Dan Romanoff discussed how the company is benefiting from artificial intelligence.

Salesforce’s fiscal third-quarter revenue grew 8% in constant currency to $10.26 billion, while non-GAAP operating margin was 35.5%. Fourth-quarter guidance is as expected after normalizing for the inclusion of Informatica, which recently closed.

Why it matters: Artificial intelligence is top of mind for investors, and momentum here is clearly growing, with Agentforce and Data 360 annual recurring revenue of $1.4 billion, up 114% year over year, while stand-alone Agentforce ARR passed $500 million and was up 330% year over year.

• Subscriptions and services were both in line with our model, with Data 360 shy of our expectations and Platform and Other better than we anticipated. Billings accelerated to 13% year-over-year growth, topping revenue growth and boding well for the near term.

The bottom line: We maintain our fair value estimate of $325 per share and see the stock as attractive. The seat-based model Salesforce employs has come under intense scrutiny and pressured most of our software coverage throughout 2025, despite our belief that AI is more tool than threat.

• We remind investors that management has guided toward becoming a rule-of-50 firm on its march toward $60 billion in revenue by 2030, and that our model is more conservative. Assuming the firm shows meaningful progress over the next several years, shares would have even more upside.

Coming up: The fourth-quarter outlook formally includes the Informatica deal, which closed on Nov. 18. After normalizing for the acquisition, we characterize guidance as consistent with broader expectations.

• Management was enthusiastic about the building pipeline and the growing usage of AI and still expects revenue to accelerate within 12-18 months.
• Fourth-quarter guidance calls for $11.13 billion to $11.23 billion in revenue, which includes approximately $300 million in incremental sales from Informatica based on our calculations, while the full-year outlook for non-GAAP operating margin remains stable at 34.1%.

Read Morningstar’s full report on Salesforce.

Who’s Advertising During the Big Game—and Who’s Worth Investing In

Here are some of the companies planning to advertise at the game this weekend, according to Brand Innovators. Only a few look like attractive stocks to buy today.