Arm’s trailing 12-month licensing revenue grew 32% to $2.7 billion, after a 50% jump in second-quarter licensing. Royalties grew just 8%. Management now sees up to $2 billion of Arm AGI CPU revenue over fiscal 2027-28 and will make an update on the supply situation next quarter.
ARM is trading within a range we consider fairly valued.
Price
$199.78
Fair Value
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Uncertainty
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1-Star Price
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5-Star Price
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Economic Moat
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Capital Allocation
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Bulls Say, Bears Say
Bulls
We expect Arm will keep gaining data center market share from x86 architecture, as its chips consume less power and data centers need to minimize energy consumption. We also expect gains in automotive shares, driven by the transition to EVs.
Bears
By entering the CPU market, Arm is competing with its own customers, treading in dangerous territory and creating a conflict of interest.
Arm Holdings is the IP owner and developer of the Arm architecture, which is used in 99% of the world’s smartphone CPU cores. Arm also has a high market share in other battery-powered devices, such as wearables, tablets, and sensors. Arm licenses its architecture for a fee, offering different license types depending on the flexibility the customer needs. Customers such as Apple or Qualcomm buy architectural licenses, which allow them to modify the architecture and add or remove instructions to tailor the chips to their specific needs. Other clients directly buy off-the-shelf designs from Arm. Both off-the-shelf and architectural customers pay a royalty fee per chip shipped. In 2026, Arm announced plans to launch its own CPU products on top of its existing royalty business.