Arm Holdings' 2026 fiscal-year results coincided in time with peer AMD doubling its server CPU TAM estimate to $120 billion May 6. AMD’s forecast is not far from Arm’s 2030 $100 billion CPU server TAM unveiled in the Arm Everywhere event in March.
We expect Arm will keep gaining data center market share from x86 architecture, as its chips consume less power and data centers need to minimize energy consumption. We also expect share gains in automotive thanks to the transition to EVs.
Bears
By competing with its own customers, Arm is treading in dangerous territory and creating a conflict of interest.
Arm Holdings is the IP owner and developer of the Arm architecture, which is used in 99% of the world’s smartphone CPU cores. It also has high market share in other battery-powered devices like wearables, tablets, and sensors. Arm licenses its architecture for a fee, offering different types of licenses depending on the flexibility the customer needs. Customers like Apple or Qualcomm buy architectural licenses, which allow them to modify the architecture and add or delete instructions to tailor the chips to their specific needs. Other clients directly buy off-the-shelf designs from Arm. Both off-the-shelf and architectural customers pay a royalty fee per chip shipped. In 2026, Arm announced the launch of its own CPU products on top of its existing royalty business.