Company Reports

We maintain our $3.50 fair value estimate for no-moat Plug Power following its fourth-quarter results. Our Extreme Uncertainty and Poor Capital Allocation ratings remain unchanged amid continued constrained liquidity in the near term. We view shares as fairly valued.

We've lowered our fair value estimate for no-moat Plug Power to $3.50 per share from $5 following the company's annual business update. The decreased valuation is driven by a lower revenue growth outlook, resulting in reduced operating leverage relative to our prior assumptions. We maintain our Extreme Uncertainty Rating as we continue to see a wide range of outcomes for the company, given constrained near-term liquidity. We view the shares as fairly valued.

Plug Power seeks to be a leader in the green hydrogen economy. Its strategy is centered on its vertical integration approach to provide customers a complete hydrogen solution—from fuel cell and electrolyzers to green hydrogen fuel.

We are maintaining our $5 fair value estimate for no-moat Plug Power following news that the company has entered into an at-the-market equity issuance program. As a result of our Extreme Morningstar Uncertainty Rating, the shares are still in 3-star territory despite a selloff in recent days.

Clean energy stocks have had a roller-coaster 18 months. Optimism following the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act in August 2022 gave way to rising interest rates in 2023. We highlight three key themes for investors to focus on in 2024: interest rates, U.S. policy, and profitability.

Media reports have picked up on leaked guidance for the hotly contested U.S. green hydrogen tax credit. While the rules have yet to be finalized, the initial reports point to slightly more restrictive guidance than hoped by many industry participants. Shares of hydrogen-exposed equities underperformed on Dec. 5, with the Global X Hydrogen exchange-traded fund down 2.9% versus the S&P 500 decline of 0.1%.

We lower our fair value estimate for no-moat Plug Power to $5 from $11.50 following its third-quarter results. The lower valuation is driven by continued execution challenges and financing uncertainty, which cause us to materially reduce our long-term financial expectations. We also increase our Uncertainty Rating to Extreme as we see a widening range of outcomes. Our capital allocation rating is lowered to Poor given the pace of cash burn relative to the level of unrestricted cash on the balance sheet.

Plug Power seeks to be a leader in the green hydrogen economy. The company’s strategy is centered on its vertical integration approach to provide customers a complete hydrogen solution—from fuel cell and electrolyzers to green hydrogen fuel.

We maintain our $11.50 per share fair value estimate for no-moat Plug Power following its annual Plug Symposium. We see shares as undervalued and continue to view the company as a high-risk high-reward investment in the green hydrogen economy. Our focus remains on the company’s financing plans and final details of the hydrogen production tax credit in the U.S.

We maintain our $11.50 fair value estimate for Plug Power after touring its green hydrogen plant in Georgia. We see shares as undervalued and view the company as a high-risk, high-reward investment on the green hydrogen economy.

We lower our fair value estimate for no-moat Plug Power to $11.50 per share from $14 following its second-quarter results. The primary driver of our decreased valuation is lower margins as we now expect a protracted margin ramp in the years ahead. We see shares as slightly undervalued following the share price selloff and we continue to view the company as a high-risk, high-reward investment on the green hydrogen economy.

Plug Power seeks to be a leader in the green hydrogen economy. The company’s strategy is centered on its vertical integration approach to provide customers a complete hydrogen solution—from fuel cell and electrolyzers to green hydrogen fuel.

We maintain our $14 per share fair value estimate for no-moat Plug Power following its first-quarter results. We continue to view shares as attractive for investors looking to capitalize on the growth potential of hydrogen, albeit with a high risk-reward (as underpinned by our Very High Uncertainty Rating).

The passage of the Inflation Reduction Act was heralded as the largest climate legislation in U.S. history. As a result, the legislation has had an impact on technology adoption expectations and, in some cases, the competitive landscape. While the legislation has already led to a dramatic impact on industry activity, we believe market participants are awaiting additional clarifications from the IRS on certain incentives prior to making further investments. We highlight three specific incentives to watch as the U.S. Department of the Treasury issues clarifications in the months ahead.

We lower our fair value estimate for no-moat Plug Power to $14 per share from $19 following a review of our financial expectations. The main drivers of our decreased valuation are reduced revenue growth and lower margins as we now expect a more protracted multiyear revenue and margin ramp.

Plug Power seeks to be a leader in the green hydrogen economy. The company’s strategy is centered on its vertical integration approach to provide customers a complete hydrogen solution—from fuel cell technology to green hydrogen fuel.

We are decreasing our fair value estimate for Plug Power to $19 from $23 per share following its fourth-quarter results. The main driver of our decreased valuation is lower revenue assumptions. Our prior revenue forecast was generally above management's targets through 2026, but below its 2030 target. We now assume revenue growth roughly in line with management's medium-term targets, while our 2030 revenue ($11 billion) remains well below management's 2030 target of $20 billion. We continue to view shares as attractive for investors looking to capitalize on the growth potential of hydrogen, albeit with a high risk-reward (Very High Uncertainty Rating). Our no-moat rating is unchanged.

Plug Power seeks to be a leader in the green hydrogen economy. The company’s strategy is centered on its vertical integration approach to provide customers a complete hydrogen solution—from fuel cell technology to green hydrogen fuel.

On Jan. 21, Plug Power announced a strategic partnership with Johnson Matthey focused on key component manufacturing for fuel cells and electrolyzers. We maintain our $23 fair value estimate and continue to view Plug shares as undervalued.

On Jan. 25, Plug Power held its annual guidance call and released preliminary revenue results for 2022. While Plug reiterated 2023 guidance, it expects 2022 revenue to come in roughly 20% below prior expectations. We maintain our $23 fair value estimate as we view the 2022 revenue miss as one-time and not indicative of a long-term trend. We view the shares as attractive for investors looking to capitalize on the growth potential of hydrogen, albeit with elevated volatility (Very High Uncertainty Rating). Our no-moat rating is unchanged.