Plug Power Looks to Show Margin Inflection in 2023; Lower FVE to $19, Shares Attractive

We are decreasing our fair value estimate for Plug Power to $19 from $23 per share following its fourth-quarter results. The main driver of our decreased valuation is lower revenue assumptions. Our prior revenue forecast was generally above management's targets through 2026, but below its 2030 target. We now assume revenue growth roughly in line with management's medium-term targets, while our 2030 revenue ($11 billion) remains well below management's 2030 target of $20 billion. We continue to view shares as attractive for investors looking to capitalize on the growth potential of hydrogen, albeit with a high risk-reward (Very High Uncertainty Rating). Our no-moat rating is unchanged.