Plug Power's 2022 Results Disappoint, but Our Focus Is on 2023 Margin Inflection; Shares Attractive

On Jan. 25, Plug Power held its annual guidance call and released preliminary revenue results for 2022. While Plug reiterated 2023 guidance, it expects 2022 revenue to come in roughly 20% below prior expectations. We maintain our $23 fair value estimate as we view the 2022 revenue miss as one-time and not indicative of a long-term trend. We view the shares as attractive for investors looking to capitalize on the growth potential of hydrogen, albeit with elevated volatility (Very High Uncertainty Rating). Our no-moat rating is unchanged.