SMFG's Earnings Supported by Japan's Policy Rate Hikes, Higher Net Fee Income, and Lower Costs

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group is one of Japan’s Big Three banking groups. Compared with its two megabank rivals, SMFG has a greater focus on retail customers and small and midsize enterprises rather than large corporate clients. We expect this exposure to help SMFG benefit from the rising interest rates and price reflation in Japan that are leading to rising property values and increased demand for mortgages. Overall, we expect Bank of Japan policy rates to rise through 2027, and stabilize at 2.0%.