Ford: First-Quarter US Sales Exceed Industry's Pace

Higher inventories and discounting continue to bring consumers back to showrooms this year with March US light-vehicle sales up 4.6% year over year. Wards put the seasonally adjusted annualized selling rate at 15.49 million, up from 14.93 million in March 2023. The chip shortage is mostly behind the industry, so inventories are at their highest levels since early 2021, which is bringing incentives off ultralow levels as a percentage of average transaction price, or ATP. Incentives per Cox Automotive have recently trended at nearly 6% of ATP, about double the rate in early 2023 but still far below prepandemic levels in the low teens. We expect continued inventory growth and higher incentives, which, combined with a possible interest rate cut or cuts this year, may fuel higher demand.