Exxon Tops Q4 Earnings Expectations Thanks to High Oil, Natural Gas Prices
Remains our preferred integrated oil company pick, but stock slightly overvalued.
Allen Good
Allen Good, CFA, is a strategist for Morningstar Holland BV, a wholly owned subsidiary of Morningstar, Inc. Based in Amsterdam, he covers the oil and gas industries. He is also chair of the Morningstar Research Services Economic Moat Committee, a group of senior members of the equity research team responsible for reviewing all Economic Moat and Moat Trend ratings issued by Morningstar.
Before joining Morningstar in 2008, he performed merger and acquisition advisory work for a middle-market investment bank. Before that, he spent several years at Black & Decker in various operational roles.
Good holds a bachelor’s degree in business from the University of Tennessee and a master’s degree in business administration from Kenan-Flagler Business School at the University of North Carolina. He also holds the Chartered Financial Analyst® designation.
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ExxonMobil Boosts Dividend After Posting Earnings Results for Q3 That Beat Expectations
Maintaining fair value estimate of $102, ExxonMobil stock slightly overvalued.
Is Exxon Stock a Buy?
Given market conditions, the company should be a winner, and Morningstar’s analyst prefers it to Chevron.
Exxon Triples Repurchase Plan With Strong Q1 Earnings
Earnings fell just short of market expectations as downstream turned in a weak quarter due to timing effects that should reverse in coming quarters.
Oil Supply and Demand: Famine to Feast?
We've lowered our near-term forecasts, but the pendulum could quickly swing back to oversupply.
Raising Fair Value Estimates on Shell, BP and Total
Higher-near term oil prices leads to increased valuation estimates.
Integrated Oil Russia Update: Shell Exits, Total Sticks
Exxon's answer is likely coming soon.
That Was Quick: BP Exiting Rosneft Stake
Updating our model with this change, along with the latest oil and gas prices, results in a slight increase to our $30 fair value estimate.
What the Ukraine Crisis Means for Oil Prices
Russia will get its oil to the global market, whether or not it invades Ukraine.
Exxon Reports Highest Quarterly Earnings Since 2014
This strong close to 2021 reopens the door to resume repurchases.
Phillips 66 Sees Improved Conditions, Debt Reduction
Our fair value estimate and moat rating are unchanged.
Oil Market Asks: Omicron Who?
We've raised our global consumption forecast for 2022, but our 2023 outlook is unchanged.
Chevron Shares 2022 Capital Expenditures; FVE Unchanged
While not the cheapest integrated oil company in our coverage, Chevron continues to present one of the safer options.
Why Exxon's Oil and Gas Focus Makes Sense
The strategy won't win praise from environmentally oriented investors, but Morningstar's analyst thinks it'll likely be more successful--and less risky.
Shell to Shift Tax Residence to U.K.
The company also plans to scrap its dual share structure.
Shell’s Q3 Overshadowed by Talk of Unlikely Breakup
Third Point had taken an estimated $750 million stake in Shell and called for a breakup of the company.
Higher Commodity Prices Help Exxon Deleverage
The company remains our cheapest integrated oil based on price/fair value.
Chevron Rides Higher Prices to Record Free Cash Flow
Our fair value estimate and narrow-moat rating are unchanged.
Chevron Increases Low-Carbon Spending
The company left its larger financial targets in place. Our fair value estimate and narrow moat rating are unchanged.
BP Increases Dividend, Announces Repurchases
Q2 brought improved earnings, a stronger financial position, and a brighter market outlook. Our fair value estimate and moat rating are unchanged.
Chevron’s Cash Flow Rebounds on Higher Oil Prices
Our fair value estimate and narrow moat rating are unchanged.
Exxon Improves Cash Flow and Reduces Debt
Our fair value estimate and narrow moat rating are unchanged, as increased shareholder returns remain on hold.
Why Shell No Longer Has a Moat
Too much uncertainty surrounds its new strategy and commodity prices.
Is Chevron's Plan to Reduce Scope 3 Emissions Feasible?
Shareholders support the narrow-moat company's proposal, however, Scope 3 emissions present a different challenge.
Activist Wins Two Exxon Board Seats
Despite the victory for Engine No. 1, we do not expect a wholesale change in strategy.
Shell to Appeal a Court Order to Reduce Emissions
The court-ordered targets are well beyond Shell’s current plans of reducing carbon intensity by 20% in 2030 and moving to net zero by 2050.
Downstream Weakness Mutes Chevron's Recovery
With strong cash flows and a healthy balance sheet, narrow-moat company announced a 4% dividend increase.
Exxon Mobil's Earnings Bounce Back
Our fair value estimate and moat rating remain.
Exxon Mobil Trims Spending and Defends Dividend
The company is not planning on pivoting from its core oil and gas business.
Are Independent Refiners' Dividends Safe?
High yields indicate opportunity as the probability of cuts is low.
Exxon Keeps Dividend Safe Through 2025
We're maintaining our $74 fair value estimate and narrow moat rating.
Chevron's Earnings Deteriorate but Outlook Improved
Chevron’s dividend remains safe, in our view, with relatively low leverage levels, an improved cost structure, and the likelihood of improving cash flow.
What Next For Oil and Gas Companies?
Morningstar equity analyst Allen Good looks at the prospects for oil and gas giants in the year ahead.
Chevron's Cash Flow Falls Short; No Dividend Concerns
We don't expect a material change our $111 per share fair value estimate.
Losses Continue for Exxon in Q3; Dividend Is Safe
Despite three consecutive quarterly losses, we're maintaining our $74 fair value estimate and narrow moat rating.
More Dividends Come Out of Shell
The supermajor has introduced a new framework for shareholder returns.
Are Independent Refiners Still Competitive?
Despite a difficult market, their advantages are intact.
Exxon Reports Q2 Loss, but Dividend Looks Safe
We don't expect to change our fair value estimate or narrow-moat rating.
Are Independent Refiners Still Buys?
Shares have rallied, but valuations are still compelling as the near term remains uncertain.
Exxon Takes Hit on Noncash Charges, Worst Still to Come
After a drop in earnings in the first quarter, we view this narrow-moat firm's shares as appealing.
Shell Cuts Dividend in Response to Market Uncertainty
Despite the dividend cut, we are keeping our fair value estimate.
Integrated Oils' Yields Are Spiking. Are Dividends Safe?
It's likely to be a tough few years, but dividends should remain intact, meaning opportunity exists.
Market Conditions Still Favorable for Independent Refiners
We think Marathon Petroleum and Valero are the most attractive.
Macroeconomic Headwinds Weigh on Exxon
The narrow-moat firm's earnings and cash flow have been affected, but our fair value estimate is unchanged.
Understanding the Emissions Challenge
An assessment of integrated oils' efforts to reduce greenhouse gas intensity.
What's Saudi Aramco Worth?
Assessing the valuation and competitive position of this oil giant.
Where to Find a Bevy of Dividend-Stock Opportunities
The major integrated oil group includes many undervalued, stable dividend stocks. Here are our favorites.
Why Won't the Market Shell Out for Shell?
We don't think the integrated oil company gets credit for its improvement.
Downstream Earnings Boost Exxon
Our fair value estimate and narrow moat rating are unchanged for the firm.
Marathon Moves Beyond Refining
We like its earnings growth potential and cash-generating ability.