We have once again lowered our fair value estimate for Gilead, and now value the firm at $75 per share following third-quarter earnings.
We lowered our fair value estimate for Gilead to $77 per share.
Based on the data, we've increased our assumed probability of approval for the REGN-COV2 antibody cocktail to 100% from 60%.
We expect multiple approved vaccines by early 2021 with wide vaccine distribution in developed markets by mid-2021.
Resurgences in outbreaks make it clear that ending the pandemic will require more than diagnostic testing, contact tracing, and social distancing.
Management raised its product sales guidance for 2020 by a range of $1.2-$2.8 billion after incorporating coronavirus headwinds and highly uncertain sales assumptions for remdesivir. This guidance fits with our assumption of $2 billion in remdesivir sales in 2020, and we're maintaining our $85 per share fair value estimate for the firm.
Despite encouraging updates from AstraZeneca and BioNTech/Pfizer, we maintain our fair value estimates.
Reforms are likely to be moderate, and we don’t expect significant changes in 2020.
Three new vaccines for coronavirus look poised for emergency use authorization in the U.S. this fall.
We are raising our fair value estimate for the wide-moat firm after their pricing announcement.
We are not making any changes to our fair value estimate or moat rating for either company after their unconfirmed merger discussion.
We're not expecting any changes to our fair value estimates for vaccine manufacturers, however, as most of the firms in our coverage with vaccine candidates have already stated that selling prices would be at a not-for-profit level.
Diagnostic testing, treatment, and a coronavirus vaccine could allow near-normal distancing and nonessential business recovery by mid-2021.
Our coronavirus infection and fatality assumptions have edged down as we settle closer to control.
We're slightly raising our fair value estimate for the wide-moat firm.
We're maintaining our $82 fair value estimate for the wide-moat firm while we await more data from the testing.
Karen Andersen and Preston Caldwell give us their latest perspectives on healthcare and energy.
It already had a solid lineup even before news of its potential COVID-19 treatment.
The hit to 2020 should be significant, but we see minimal long-term economic impact, and the treatment pipeline is progressing.
We don't assume any significant long-term financial impact from the outbreak.
Morningstar's Karen Andersen explains how ESG issues affect Big Pharma and biotech companies.
Morningstar and Sustainalytics offer complementary methodologies.
Details on Alzheimer's drug candidate are encouraging, but uncertainty remains.
We assign a 30% probability of approval of the wide-moat firm's Alzheimer's drug.
These industries are the most undervalued in the healthcare sector, owing to potential U.S. drug pricing reforms coming out of Washington.
We like Roche, which has been less exposed to rebates and can defend its growth.
Even after recent failed drug trials, we think the company’s undervalued.
We think the market underappreciates some large pharma and biotech names.
We continue to believe that the NASH opportunity is not fully baked into shares.
A broad array of oncology and autoimmune programs gives the company a larger margin of error.
We think the deal is strategically and financially positive.
The current CEO of Roche's pharmaceutical division, Daniel O'Day, will leave Roche at the end of 2018 and for Gilead, cementing the firm's oncology commitment.
The narrow-moat firm has multiple data and launch catalysts through 2020 leading to our higher than consensus projections.
There's too much uncertainty to assume a significant hit to prices.
The wide-moat drugmaker's pipeline will allow it to grow in the face of biosimilar competition.
Wide-moat Gilead and no-moat Intercept have promising treatments for liver disease that could see more than $2 billion in peak sales.
We expect the pharma company to continue earning excess returns.
These manufacturing experts look undervalued today.
Alzheimer's therapy shows promising results.
The wide-moat drugmaker's cash pile can support acquisitions to bolster growth in the face of biosimilar and branded pressure.
The failure of their cancer immunotherapy combination is a bigger blow to Incyte than to Merck.
The rumored deal is somewhat of a surprise, but it could make strategic sense.
A growing portfolio of rare-disease drugs digs a moat for the company.
The narrow-moat biotech firm's financial health doesn't worry us as its approved therapies help drive growth.
We think many of its drugs are relatively more resistant to patent cliffs or sales pressure from generics.
We're raising our fair value estimate on the narrow-moat firm after the unveiling of a new cancer product.
Sotagliflozin's side effects and competitor data lead to a near $10 cut.
We think the wide-moat firm can counter biosimilar competition and maintain its strong position.
We don't think the current price accounts for the company's pipeline.