Why Pimco Income Remains Among the Best
This multisector bond fund is still a top choice for income-seekers.
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Pimco Income brings together great investors and a hallmark process in a multisector package that has soared. Under our enhanced ratings methodology, its attractively priced Institutional class earns a Morningstar Analyst Rating of Gold, while its other shares carry a mix of Silver, Bronze, and Neutral ratings.
Dan Ivascyn and Alfred Murata have leveraged Pimco’s bountiful--and growing--human and analytical resources, including mortgage and real estate specialists, and newer staff focused on special credit situations. Its long-term returns were near the top of the multisector-bond Morningstar Category as of April 30, 2020.
Notwithstanding a rough early 2020 when the coronavirus-related sell-off sapped liquidity, the strategy’s nonagency residential mortgages have been a consistent contributor to its success. Pre-financial-crisis supply in the sector has been shrinking, while until recently the strategy has grown at a furious clip. Pimco still likes the sector for its return potential and modest volatility: The team has even managed to raise and lower exposure to the sector, at times acquiring chunks from sellers wanting or needing to unload them; they totaled 37% as of March 2020. The allocation mainly comprises a mix of legacy nonagency residential mortgage-backed securities and reperforming loan securitizations, and the team has avoided searching for higher yields in newer untested sectors or subordinated tranches as the strategy has grown. Absent a sea change in the market, the nonagency mortgage sector will continue to shrink. We'd prefer Pimco consider closing the strategy to new money should the managers have trouble keeping the exposure as large as they’d like, but the firm has no plans to consider it.
The strategy saw large outflows during March and April 2020--including $14 billion from the U.S. fund and $16 billion from its cross-border portfolio--but it had built liquidity over the prior 12-18 months as Pimco backed away from tightening valuations. Managing those flows while keeping returns in healthy range of its peers underscores the management team's appeal.
Process | Above Average
Like all Pimco's strategies, this one relies on numerous top-down and bottom-up calls. Thanks to its income focus, the portfolio has weightings in higher-income areas, such as high-yield corporates and non-U.S. bonds, and it has for years had a strong taste for nonagency mortgages relative to the multisector-bond category. This also means that while the strategy will reflect Pimco's macro themes, it will diverge from higher-quality siblings such as Pimco Total Return (PTTRX). It also typically employs some leverage, mostly via derivatives.
The team sets a monthly dividend and attempts to stick with it for at least a year. Prudence demands that number be set lower than what the portfolio’s holdings actually produce each month to avoid a shortfall, and there's usually undistributed income at each year-end, which is paid as an extra dividend to avoid running afoul of IRS tax rules.
Our main quibble here is a difference of opinion with Pimco on its unwillingness to entertain closing the fund should asset growth make it difficult to maintain the managers' sector preferences (in the nonagency mortgage sector, for example). The firm views the question differently, focusing instead on whether the portfolio can remain competitive with its peers--and believes that's possible with an even much larger asset base. Overall, the fund earns an Above Average Process rating.
The strategy has navigated several rough periods better than many peers, even avoiding the stumbles of sibling offerings, but nonagency RMBS have been a cornerstone of the portfolio. Pre-financial-crisis, nonagency RMBS supply has been shrinking at a rate of 10%-15% per year, yet Pimco has managed to raise and lower that exposure, at times acquiring big chunks from sellers wanting or needing to unload them. After drifting down to 23% of the fund at the end of 2017--its lowest weighting since mid-2010--the team built it up to 41% a year later. (It was 37% on March 31, 2020.) The team has focused on senior tranches of legacy assets whose fundamentals have improved over the years and has avoided new sectors such as nonqualified mortgages and credit-risk transfer debt that are less seasoned and untested.
The team slashed its agency MBS stake to 5.8% by August 2017 from 45% at the end of 2011, in particular as valuations tightened, but brought it back to 31% by March 2020. It has rounded out the portfolio with emerging-markets debt (16%), a mix of high-yield (13%) and investment-grade corporates (10.3%), and modest developed-markets exposure of roughly 5% combined with a notable Japan short (16% of the fund’s market value). The fund was 92.5% exposed to the dollar, with the largest remaining allocations in Mexico (1.9%), Russia (1.5%), Brazil (1.2%), and Peru (0.8%).
People | High
Dan Ivascyn, longtime head of Pimco's mortgage credit effort, has called the shots since the fund's 2007 inception and heads the firm's mortgage credit effort. His profile soared in 2014, first named a deputy CIO following Mohamed El-Erian's departure in January, and then group CIO (effectively Pimco's top investor) when Bill Gross resigned in September 2014. Alfred Murata, who joined Pimco in 2001, has been a comanager on this fund in March 2013. The duo was named Morningstar Fixed-Income Fund Manager of 2013. They were joined in July 2018 by Joshua Anderson, a specialist in structured product, real estate, and specialty finance securitizations who has worked at Pimco since 2003.
Ivascyn and other sector specialists were added to the firm’s investment committee in January 2014, which brought the group into better balance. The size and depth of the firm's mortgage desk--including roughly 50 real estate specialists--have been crucial to this fund, in particular, given the esoteric nature of that market's subgroups and structures. It will be important to monitor how Pimco manages that resource, but no less so the others this fund will eventually need to rely on as the nonagency mortgage sector continues to dwindle. Of course, Pimco has many other strengths, and this fund's management is still among the industry's best. The fund earns a High People rating.
Parent | Above Average
The state of Pimco is strong, and the firm earns an Above Average Parent rating.
Morningstar has taken Pimco to task for expensive retail share classes and big price tags outside the United States. The firm also gets lots of attention for its intense working culture, invariably sparking speculation of whether it leads to dysfunction that might drive away the firm's best investors. In defiance of that narrative, Pimco has consistently hired highly skilled people who thrive in its pressure cooker--and stick around for a long time. People do leave, and some of its best and brightest have occasionally departed or retired earlier than one would have hoped. Even so, the firm's record of filling in the gaps has been remarkable and Pimco has managed to promote and broaden leadership responsibility across its talent pool.
The persistence of Pimco's investment culture has been critical. Despite the acrimony of Bill Gross' 2014 departure, an experienced and critical-thinking investor--rather than a prototypical corporate manager--took over as the firm's cultural force in the form of Dan Ivascyn. Now effectively the firm's CIO, Ivascyn had material influence in the later hiring of industry-veteran Manny Roman as CEO. Whether or not the pair's bonhomie is as genuine as it appears, Ivascyn and Roman have kept the firm in excellent stead as both a strong steward of investor capital and a thriving business.
Between the early 2020 coronavirus sell-off and nascent recovery that followed, the strategy placed around the middle of the multisector-bond category for the year through April. Even with that baked in, the strategy has posted long-term returns among the category’s best, with modest volatility. It has been as or more resilient in other times of stress, too, such as late 2011 and the summer of 2013. That's notable given the difficulty that Pimco's macro positioning triggered for others in the complex during those stretches. And with a high-yield stake less than a third that of most rivals, it sailed through the fourth-quarter 2018 sell-off with top-quartile returns.
The fund has picked up help from several areas in recent years, including at times exposure to falling global government-bond yields, rallying corporates, and a strong U.S. dollar, and it has banked contributions from its rates exposures during most years since inception. Its emerging-markets allocation has had mixed results but has been mostly helpful since 2015.
All that said, the fund's nonagency mortgage exposures have been healthy contributors to its success in recent years, the primary exception being the sector's March 2020 liquidity shock. That notwithstanding, the sector has otherwise posted strong returns with comparatively little volatility.
It’s critical to evaluate expenses, as they come directly out of returns. The share class on this report levies a fee that ranks in its Morningstar category’s cheapest quintile. Based on our assessment of the fund’s People, Process and Parent pillars in the context of these fees, we think this share class will be able to deliver positive alpha relative to the category benchmark index, explaining its Morningstar Analyst Rating of Gold.
Eric Jacobson has a position in the following securities mentioned above: PTTRX. Find out about Morningstar’s editorial policies.