7 Things You Need to Know About Brexit
Here's a crash course, with links to more in-depth analyst opinions and commentary.
Download the full Brexit: A Morningstar View report.
1. What is Brexit?
On June 23, 2016, the United Kingdom held a referendum. Voters were invited to give their opinion on whether or not the U.K. should remain a member of the European Union or leave. "Leave" won, 51.9% to 48.1%. "Brexit" is a combination of "Britain" and "exit."
While not everyone voted, the turnout (at 72%, or more than 30 million votes) was much higher turnout than general elections.
2. When is the U.K. due to leave the European Union?
Per the rules of the treaty, the U.K. has two years to leave the European Union. British Prime Minister Theresa May started the clock for this process on March 29, 2017, meaning the U.K. is scheduled to leave by the end of the first quarter of 2019. While it's possible to extend that time frame, both sides are currently proceeding as though that date is the deadline.
3. What is the European Union?
The European Union is a political and economic union of 28 member states covering 1.7 million square miles, with an estimated population of about 510 million people. It functions as a single market with laws and policies intended to promote peace and freedom of movement among its member states. It functions as a trade bloc and the majority of member states have adopted the euro as their official currency. Like the U.S. Federal Reserve, it also aims to promote economic growth, price stability, and full employment.
4. What is "soft" Brexit?
"Soft" Brexit would mean that the U.K. would remain closely aligned with the European Union without being an actual member state. A softer Brexit is anticipated to have a much smaller impact on the U.K. economy because the U.K. would essentially remain a member of the trade bloc (it would pay to remain a member of the customs union). If the U.K. chose to go the route of soft Brexit, it could still be bound by some of the rules (especially with regard to immigration and tariffs).
5. What is "hard" Brexit?
In contrast, under a "hard" Brexit scenario, the U.K. would leave the European Union completely. Therefore, it would have more control over its immigration policies and could negotiate its own deals with trade partners.
6: What is the likely outcome?
May has proposed an exit agreement that starts with a soft Brexit but transitions to a hard Brexit by year-end 2020. During the transition, the U.K. will still pay to have access to the market, and the U.K. will also settle its debts during this period. U.K. borders will remain open during the transition period.
During the transition period, negotiators will outline a new relationship, which includes new trade arrangements. Decisions have yet to be finalized on whether Europeans currently living and working in the U.K. will be allowed to continue to do so.
May's proposed exit also avoids a physical border separating Northern Ireland, which is part of the U.K., and the Republic of Ireland, which is a member of the European Union.
Britain's House of Commons has voted May's plan down twice--once in January and again on March 12. The future of Brexit remains unclear. May said that Parliament will vote on March 13 to decide whether the U.K. should leave the EU with no deal; then on March 14 it will vote on whether to request that the March 29 withdrawal deadline be extended.
7. What should investors do about all of this?
Not much. Although investors will probably be tempted to trade based on expected outcomes, we don't see a strong connection between political developments and investment fundamentals.
"As long-term investors, politics doesn't play much of a role in how we view our portfolios. We want to know the range of possible outcomes and position accordingly, but we must resist speculating," says Morningstar Investment Management's Dan Kemp.
Want more in-depth Brexit analysis and commentary? Check out our roundup of recent research.
Hammond: Brexit Deal Could Deliver £26.6bn Dividend | March 13, 2019
Philip Hammond said on Wednesday he would release £26.6 billion in spending should MPs eventually vote through a deal for an orderly Brexit in the coming three weeks.
Bank of England Brexit Warning Sparks Controversy | Nov. 29, 2018
Warnings of a 33% fall in house prices, a surge in interest rates, and unemployment have put the Bank back at the center of the Brexit debate.
Brexit Chaos: How Investors Can Stay Calm | Nov. 16, 2018
Morningstar Investment Management's Dan Kemp says the link between political events and investment returns is less predictable than we think.
Corbyn Bigger Threat to U.K. Stocks Than Brexit | Nov. 15, 2018
The FTSE 100 should perform well no matter what Brexit deal we get, says Kleinwort Hambros. But a polarizing government would be harder to recover from.
JPMorgan's Ward: Expect Soft Brexit Deal and More Rate Rises | Oct. 12, 2018
The Bank of England will raise rates quicker than the market currently expects, predicts JPMorgan's Karen Ward.
State Street: No Deal Brexit Is a Natural Disaster | Sept. 19, 2018
A no deal or hard Brexit will have the same negative impact on the UK economy as a natural disaster, says State Street Global Markets' Michael Metcalfe.
Woolnough: Brexit Will Throw Up Opportunities for Investors | Oct. 1, 2018
A no-deal Brexit will give investors the chance to take advantage of markets that will inevitably over-react, according to Richard Woolnough at M&G.