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Rekenthaler Report

What Will Your Portfolio Return?

Public pension funds and investment managers have reached very different conclusions in the guesswork that is predicting investment returns.

Pick a Number
If you believe investment managers, your portfolio won't be growing much during the next several years. GMO's forecast as of December 2015--it has since upgraded its view on U.S. stocks--shows 0%-2% returns (all figures in this column are annualized and in nominal terms) for everything save emerging markets and timber. Over the upcoming decade, Jack Bogle expects 4%-6% gains on stocks and thus 3%-4% for balanced portfolios--minus expenses, as he would point out.