Skip to Content
Rekenthaler Report

Bogle: Stocks 6%, Bonds 3%

Bogle’s forecasts may not be reliable guides for any specified time period, but they will likely be close to the mark over the longer term.

Two Estimates
This month, the Journal of Portfolio Management published "Occam's Razor Redux: Establishing Reasonable Expectations for Financial Market Returns." (Sorry, the link is to an abstract only.) Authored by Jack Bogle and Michael Nolan Jr., the article projects U.S. stocks to gain about 6% over the next decade. Bonds figure to make half as much, 3%. Both of those figures are in nominal terms--that is, they are not adjusted for inflation.

The article's bond model is simplicity itself: Future returns = Current yield to maturity. The yield to maturity on 10-year Treasuries was 2.4% when the paper was written, which Bogle and Nolan round up to 3%. (A generous nudge, which can perhaps be justified by the addition of higher-yielding credit bonds.) As today's 10-year Treasury yield is 2.3%, that estimate remains valid.

Transparency is how we protect the integrity of our work and keep empowering investors to achieve their goals and dreams. And we have unwavering standards for how we keep that integrity intact, from our research and data to our policies on content and your personal data.

We’d like to share more about how we work and what drives our day-to-day business.

We sell different types of products and services to both investment professionals and individual investors. These products and services are usually sold through license agreements or subscriptions. Our investment management business generates asset-based fees, which are calculated as a percentage of assets under management. We also sell both admissions and sponsorship packages for our investment conferences and advertising on our websites and newsletters.

How we use your information depends on the product and service that you use and your relationship with us. We may use it to:

  • Verify your identity, personalize the content you receive, or create and administer your account.
  • Provide specific products and services to you, such as portfolio management or data aggregation.
  • Develop and improve features of our offerings.
  • Gear advertisements and other marketing efforts towards your interests.

To learn more about how we handle and protect your data, visit our privacy center.

Maintaining independence and editorial freedom is essential to our mission of empowering investor success. We provide a platform for our authors to report on investments fairly, accurately, and from the investor’s point of view. We also respect individual opinions––they represent the unvarnished thinking of our people and exacting analysis of our research processes. Our authors can publish views that we may or may not agree with, but they show their work, distinguish facts from opinions, and make sure their analysis is clear and in no way misleading or deceptive.

To further protect the integrity of our editorial content, we keep a strict separation between our sales teams and authors to remove any pressure or influence on our analyses and research.

Read our editorial policy to learn more about our process.