Analyst Note| Jelena Sokolova, CFA |
We are not making any changes to our fair value estimates for our luxury and apparel coverage list due to Russia-Ukraine armed conflict. The luxury industry’s exposure to the Russia and Ukraine is small, accounting for a low-single-digit percentage of revenue, by our estimates. We believe that the conflict is unlikely to dampen consumer confidence in China (primary long-term growth driver) or the U.S. (driver of growth in recent years). European consumer sentiment (low-20% of industry’s sales) may be affected, should energy-related inflation accelerate meaningfully as a result of conflict; however, Morningstar's view is that the likelihood of gas delivery disruption to Europe from Russia is low. That said, most luxury names in our coverage look expensive to us, and we would recommend investors await a wider margin of error for investment in the sector.