Analyst Note
| Angus Hewitt |We maintain our NZD 0.97 fair value estimate for shares in Air New Zealand following a trading update. Our fair value estimate for Australian-listed securities lifts 2% to AUD 0.90 based on the current AUD/NZD exchange rate of about 1.08. The airline upgraded guidance for fiscal 2023 underlying pretax profit to between NZD 510 million and NZD 560 million—a 9% increase from prior guidance at the midpoint. Strong demand is persisting, and jet fuel prices have moderated (albeit offset by weakness in the NZD), leading to exceptional near-term profitability for Air New Zealand. We lift our fiscal 2023 underlying pretax profit forecast by 5% to NZD 542 million, but make only minor tweaks to our longer-term forecasts.