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Toll Brothers Inc TOL

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We Raised Our Housing Starts Forecast; Strong Demand to Persist, but Supply Constraints Remain

Analyst Note

| Brian Bernard, CFA, CPA |

After reviewing recent housing market data, we've raised our decade-long housing starts forecast. Over the next 10 years, we're now projecting approximately 15.4 million cumulative housing starts, about 9% higher than our previous forecast. We expect total starts of 1.475 million units in 2021, up about 7% year over year, with production increasing to over 1.6 million units annually by 2025. Thereafter, we moderate our projections as supply and demand become more balanced. Our midcycle forecast of 1.46 million starts is about 5% higher than our previous estimate.

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Company Profile

Business Description

Toll Brothers is the leading luxury homebuilder in the United States with an average sales price well above public competitors'. The company operates in 50 markets across 24 states and caters to move-up, active-adult, and second-homebuyers. Traditional homebuilding operations represent most of company’s revenue. Toll Brothers also builds luxury for-sale and for-rent properties in urban centers, primarily on the East Coast. The company's headquarters is in Horsham, Pennsylvania.

1140 Virginia Drive
Fort Washington, PA, 19034
T +1 215 938-8000
Sector Consumer Cyclical
Industry Residential Construction
Most Recent Earnings Jan 31, 2021
Fiscal Year End Oct 31, 2021
Stock Type Cyclical
Employees 4,500