Analyst Note| Brian Bernard, CFA, CPA |
After reviewing recent housing market data, we've raised our decade-long housing starts forecast. Over the next 10 years, we're now projecting approximately 15.4 million cumulative housing starts, about 9% higher than our previous forecast. We expect total starts of 1.475 million units in 2021, up about 7% year over year, with production increasing to over 1.6 million units annually by 2025. Thereafter, we moderate our projections as supply and demand become more balanced. Our midcycle forecast of 1.46 million starts is about 5% higher than our previous estimate.